Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

Methodological approaches to forecasting the industrial development based on the simulation of economic agents' expectations

Vol. 16, Iss. 11, NOVEMBER 2017

Received: 23 August 2017

Received in revised form: 22 September 2017

Accepted: 23 October 2017

Available online: 29 November 2017


JEL Classification: B50, С02, C21, C22, C43

Pages: 2028–2042

El'shin L.A. University of Management TISBI, Kazan, Zelenodolsk, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation

Importance Researching the mechanisms and methods of scenario-specific forecasting of socio-economic systems is an important scientific and methodological issue that is of particular relevance in the environment of dynamically developing and evolving external and internal factors. The article deals with their definition and identification, assesses specific impacts on future changes in the industrial development of the national economy.
Objectives The aim is to test the mechanisms for scenario modeling of industrial sectors of the Russian economy based on the assessment of expectations of economic agents generating transformation processes in the national economic system.
Methods I apply tools of cross-correlation analysis of major systemically important factors impacting the expectations of economic agents, and tools for designing probit and logit models and multiple choice models. The study also employs taxonomic analysis, indicative methods, etc.
Results I formulated methodological approaches to simulate the growth of industrial sectors of economy on the basis of assessment of expectations. Their testing enabled elaboration of estimates of Russian industrial development for the period up to 2020. The findings may be useful for public administration authorities to make short- and medium-term forecasts for the industrial development.
Conclusions and Relevance The findings revealed trends in the industrial growth of the national economy over the medium term, depending on designed scenarios for institutional environment development.

Keywords: scenario forecasting, industrial development, expectation, economic agent, modeling


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