Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

Economic growth, inflation, investments and incomes in the Russian Federation: Econometric model-based analysis and forecast

Vol. 17, Iss. 1, JANUARY 2018

Received: 2 June 2017

Received in revised form: 19 October 2017

Accepted: 15 November 2017

Available online: 29 January 2018


JEL Classification: E51, E52, E62, O42, O47

Pages: 18–29

Mitsek S.A. Liberal Arts University, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Mitsek E.B. Liberal Arts University, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Importance The article describes findings based on the new version of our econometric model, designed to analyze current trends in the Russian economy and determinants of its development, and to forecast its behavior pattern for the coming years.
Objectives Our purpose is to show the influence of various factors on the main macroeconomic variables under different scenarios of external economic situation and options of monetary and fiscal policy in the Russian Federation.
Methods Using the econometric model, we analyzed current trends in economic development and revealed factors impacting the macroeconomic indicators and economic growth of Russia's economy.
Results The model shows that if the present trend in exogenous variables continues, the economic growth in Russia in 2018–2019 will become negative. However, loosening the monetary policy and curbing the growth of public procurement deflator will be favorable for investments in fixed assets and the economic growth.
Conclusions The model demonstrates a relative weakening of external economic factors' influence on the Russian economy. It remains strongly dependent on demographic factors. Major problems of the Russian economy include stagnation of total factor productivity and insufficient level of investment in fixed assets.

Keywords: econometric model, economic growth, investment, inflation, fiscal policy


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Vol. 17, Iss. 1
January 2018