Igoshev A.K.National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation firstname.lastname@example.org ORCID id: not available
Kistanova L.A.National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation email@example.com ORCID id: not available
Importance Innovation activities are associated with high risk, therefore, building effective models to assess risks of innovative processes is a critical task of economic analysis and innovation management. Objectives The study focuses on economic and mathematical model building, enabling the quantitative and qualitative analysis of risk factors of innovative processes on the basis of probabilistic characteristics and hazard considerations. Methods We employ methods of systems analysis and the concepts of fuzzy logic adapted to the management theory. MATLAB serve as a basic software. Results We present a relatively new approach to innovative process risk assessment based on the fuzzy logic theory. Our calculations show the possibility of risk assessment by stages throughout the life cycle of the innovation. We formulated and analyzed algorithms to assess and manage risks associated with innovative processes at a certain stage of project implementation. Conclusions The paper offers a methodology to assess risks of innovative processes based on the fuzzy logic. The methods enable to distinguish risks that are not significant and those requiring special attention and control at all interrelated stages of innovative projects. We also give examples of calculations of probability characteristics and risk levels.
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