Finance and Credit
 

Profit of the Commercial Bank: A Retrospective Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Vol. 24, Iss. 2, FEBRUARY 2018

Received: 15 January 2018

Received in revised form: 30 January 2018

Accepted: 13 February 2018

Available online: 1 March 2018

Subject Heading: Banking

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 388–413

https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.24.2.388

Polyanskaya N.М. Buryat State University, Ulan-Ude, Republic of Buryatia, Russian Federation
natali_mz@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6387-6494

Subject This paper studies the method of rough analysis of financial results and profitability of a commercial bank.
Objectives The paper aims to offer and test the method of rough analysis of financial results and profitability of a commercial bank, provide a short-term forecast of the main determinants of profit on the basis of this analysis, and identify priority directions of the bank's profitability growth.
Methods The study is based on the systems approach and dialectical method. As well, it uses statistical, financial, forecast analyses, and comparison.
Results The paper proposes a methodology of retrospective rapid analysis of income, expense, profit, and profitability using AO Russian Agricultural Bank's data as a case study for consideration. The paper presents a short-term forecast of quantitative parameters of the main bank's profit determinants and indicate directions of the bank's profitability growth.
Conclusions and Relevance The retrospective and predictive analyses of financial results and profitability of the bank's activities are of great importance to financial information users. The system of indicators in the framework of rough analysis, as well as short-term forecast data allow users to get ongoing information about monitored objects.

Keywords: bank, profit, forecast, profitability, rapid analysis

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ISSN 2311-8709 (Online)
ISSN 2071-4688 (Print)

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