Subject The article focuses on the issue of establishing a risk assessment and prediction system based on a rank factor model that minimizes uncertainty in the onset of unfavorable events in the medium-and long-term planning of the region's economic development. Objectives The article aims to develop tools for assessing and predicting the sustainable development of regions in terms of their sectoral structure by identifying the sources of regional risks, their aggregating assessment, and the priorities for innovative development. Methods For the study, we used the methods and techniques of scientific abstraction, observation, expert evaluation, economic and statistical analysis, structural and logical analysis, and a systems approach. Results The article presents a methodology for assessing the development of a regional economy, which is characterized by the synthesis of dynamic regulations and the use of non-parametric rank methods. This methodology enables the analysis of specific quantitative characteristics of the development, which allows the overall movement path to be controlled by growth rate of each particular indicator included in the dynamic regulation. Conclusions To achieve innovative development, it is necessary to measure the degree of economic dynamism of the regional system by improving its structure. From the management paradigm perspective, risk ranking is required in terms of the impact on the region's socioeconomic development.
Keywords: innovation and investment sector, growth rate, economy, summarizing risks
Buyanova M.E., Kalinina A.E. Upravlenie sotsial'no-ekonomicheskim razvitiem regiona na osnove risk-menedzhmenta: monografiya [Management of the socio-economic development of the region on the basis of risk management: a monograph]. Volgograd, VSU Publ., 2013, 206 p.
Buyanova M.E. [Evaluation of regional risks in the Southern Federal District regions]. REGIONOLOGIYA REGIONOLOGY, 2006, no. 3, pp. 20–32. (In Russ.)
Glaz'ev S.Yu., Lokosov V.V. [Assessment of the critical values of Russian society indicators and their use in the management of socio-economic development]. Ekonomicheskie i cotsial'nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz = Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2012, no. 4, pp. 22–41. URL: http://esc.isert-ran.ru/article/317/full (In Russ.)
Porfir'ev B.N. [Risks and crises: a new direction for public research]. Novaya i noveishaya istoriya = Modern and Current History Journal, 2005, no. 3, pp. 230–238. (In Russ.)
Al'gin A.P., Orzikh M.F. [Perestroika and economic risk: socio-legal aspects]. Pravovedenie, 1989, no. 5, pp. 20–27. (In Russ.)
Shakhov V.V., Medvedev V.G., Millerman A.S. Teoriya i upravlenie riskami v strakhovanii [Theory and risk management in insurance]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika Publ., 2003, 224 p.
Granaturov V.M., Grigorashchenko E.O. [Analysis of the marketing component of enterprise risks]. Marketing v Rossii i za rubezhom = Marketing in Russia and Abroad, 2015, no. 1, pp. 4–10. (In Russ.)
Glushchenko V.V., Glushchenko I.I. [Innovative entrepreneurship: A firm's risk theory as a methodical basis for managing the risks of innovative projects in a global crisis]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo = Journal of Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2014, no. 8, pp. 838–843. (In Russ.)
Goncharov V.D., Koteev S.V. [Management of innovative risks in the food complex]. Ekonomika sel'skokhozyaistvennykh i pererabatyvayushchikh predpriyatii = Economy of Agricultural and Processing Enterprises, 2011, no. 5, pp. 37–40. URL: http://www.viapi.ru/download/2015/30601.pdf (In Russ.)
Makhteva I.P. [Features of risk classification in the management of the holding innovation projects]. Vestnik Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics, 2013, no. 7, pp. 59–62. URL: http://vestnik.sseu.ru/index.php?cnt=1&idv=203 (In Russ.)
Yuldashev R.T. [The development of risk management is an essential resource for the efficiency of the Russian economy]. Strakhovoe delo, 2013, no. 6, pp. 8–19. (In Russ.)
Buyanova M.E. [Risk management in a control system of innovative development of region]. Ekonomika ustoichivogo razvitiya = Economics of Sustainable Development, 2012, no. 9, pp. 42–48. (In Russ.)
Sevruk V.T. [Analyze the risk level]. Bukhgalterskii uchet = Accounting, 1993, no. 4, pp. 26–30. (In Russ.)
Stanislavchik E.N. Risk-menedzhment na predpriyatii. Teoriya i praktika [Risk-management in the enterprise. Theory and practice]. Moscow, Os'-89 Publ., 2002, 80 p.