Importance The financial crisis has revealed shortcomings in commercial banks' operations. High risk of banking transactions, national currency devaluation lead to a decrease in capital adequacy, liquidity and solvency problems, and necessitate the need to seek for alternative investment of temporarily free funds and increase operating efficiency. These problems should be solved by using prediction calculation of basic indicators, i.e. capital, assets, earnings. Objectives The study aims to develop models for forecast management of commercial banks. Methods The study employs dialectical logic and systems approach. On the basis of scientific approach, I consider factual evidence on the paper's topic using methods of comparison, compilation, economic and statistical data processing. I evaluate the commercial bank's financial performance using the correlation and regression analysis. Results The paper offers a method to analyze return on capital based on coefficients of correlation and elasticity, as well as recommendations on the obtained findings for the largest banks. Some ideas of the study have been implemented in the activity of commercial banks. Conclusions and Relevance I offer a new approach to improving the assessment of commercial banks' performance on the basis of econometric evaluation and forecasting the basic indicators. These techniques may allow commercial banks to improve their analytical work and improve their ratings in the bank services market.
Keywords: forecast, analysis, banks, correlation
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