Klochkov V.V.V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation vlad_klochkov@mail.ru
Importance As the Russian economy will be adapting to technological shifts, the economy will get more sensitive to fluctuating macroeconomic conditions. Therefore it is important to analyze how the transition to the new technological mode will influence the sustainability of the Russian economy. Objectives The research evaluates and assesses how the sensitivity of the Russian economy will change and respond to a possible decrease in global GDP. The research identifies mechanisms which make the Russian economy more resistant when it shifts to the future energy mode. Methods I devised an economic and mathematical model reflecting export trends in renewable energy resources and long-standing equipment when global GDP changes. I considered specifics of trends market of resources and equipment during the period of growth and downturn in global GDP. I proposed a simple model to gauge how much the Russian economy depends on import. Results As the economic and mathematical analysis shows, the transition to high-tech equipment manufacturing may even increase the vulnerability of the Russian economy to global economic shocks since the export of the Russian high-tech equipment is likely to be more sensitive to global economic downturn as compared with resource export. Conclusions and Relevance When shifting to a new economic mode, Russia’s economic security can be increased by reducing the dependence on import of high-tech goods and export of resources. Such changes in the structure of the Russian economy may indirectly result from the adoption of new technologies by the global power engineering sector.
Keywords: alternative energy, energy resources, foreign economic shocks, sustainability, modeling
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