National Interests: Priorities and Security

The number of working age population in Russia and possible responses to its decline

Vol. 13, Iss. 11, NOVEMBER 2017

Received: 4 October 2017

Received in revised form: 26 October 2017

Accepted: 11 November 2017

Available online: 29 November 2017


JEL Classification: J11, J14, J18, J21, O14, O15

Pages: 2005–2017

Sinitsa A.L. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation

Importance A decline in young and working age population and increase in elderly population affect the economic growth and put the economic revival of the nation at peril.
Objectives I examine the number of principal socio-demographic groups of the Russian population within the 1990–2016 time span. I determine how the numbers may possibly change after 2017 and what measures can be undertaken to mitigate an adverse effect on the economy.
Methods Relying upon the Rosstat data, I trace trends in numbers of principal socio?demographic groups of the Russian population up to 2017. To project it for the 2017–2050 period, I adhere to the Russian population dynamics forecast prepared in the Lomonosov Moscow State University.
Results Young population and working age population will decline significantly, with the elderly population showing the opposite trend. The article demonstrates the breakdown of the population group as assessed by the probable forecast for January 1, 2051.
Conclusions and Relevance The modernization process pursues a better demographic situation, infrastructure development and adoption of new measures to harmonize family and professional roles of parents, increase the share of working elderly people, promote the digital economy. All these aspects are important, with the first two of them being the most critical ones, since they are intended to increase the birth rate.

Keywords: demographic forecast, labor force, human resources, reindustrialization, economic problem, retired


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