National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Econometric modeling of employment on the basis of the industrial distinctions

Vol. 13, Iss. 11, NOVEMBER 2017

Received: 13 September 2017

Received in revised form: 30 September 2017

Accepted: 22 October 2017

Available online: 29 November 2017

Subject Heading: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY

JEL Classification: С10, C80, J21, R13

Pages: 2018–2034

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.13.11.2018

Pakhomov A.V. AO NPK Dedal, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation pakhomov_av@dedal.ru

Pakhomova E.A. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation uni-dubna@mail.ru

Rozhkova O.V. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation olga_r2006@mail.ru

Importance The article discusses models for employment forecast in the long and short run. It also focuses on demand and supply factors in the labor market of the Moscow oblast.
Objectives We analyze the most common forecasting models by revealing the substance of the population employment forecast and examining how different indicators influence supply and demand in the labor market of the Moscow oblast.
Methods Considering the key factors of labor demand, we make a specification for employment modeling. We use the data deflation technique to conduct a comparative analysis. We overview neoclassical models and Keynesian model, specifications based on the Cobb–Douglas production function and investment included into the capital stock, Harrod–Domar model specification, multivariate regression equations.
Results The article systematizes theoretical aspects of employment, identifies key factors of labor demand and substantiates the importance of industrial distinctions to be taken into account in modeling the region's employment.
Conclusions and Relevance Labor resource demand has changed in the labor market of the Moscow oblast. We conclude respective demand factors shall be primarily taken into account to construct regional employment models. Having analyzed contemporary approaches to regional employment forecasts, we found a lot of unresolved issues relating to theoretical, methodological, organizational and technical aspects.

Keywords: employment, forecasting model, industrial specifics, competitiveness

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