Regional Economics: Theory and Practice

Mathematical modeling of the sustainable socio-environmental and economic development of a region using statistical data: The Kemerovo oblast case study

Vol. 15, Iss. 8, AUGUST 2017

Received: 12 May 2017

Received in revised form: 29 May 2017

Accepted: 15 June 2017

Available online: 15 August 2017


JEL Classification: C32, C41, Q56

Pages: 1552–1564

Chernova E.S. Kemerovo State University, Kemerovo, Russian Federation

Importance This article examines the possibility of using best management and data analysis theories to build a mathematical model for the sustainable development of a region, regarding the Kemerovo oblast as a case study.
Objectives Using statistics, the article aims to develop a mathematical model of sustainable socio-environmental and economic development of a region in the form of a discrete problem of optimum control, and perform a comprehensive analysis of it.
Methods For the study, I used the methods of optimal control theory, systems analysis, mathematical statistics, regression analysis, and the optimization.
Results The paper presents a mathematical model of sustainable development of a region in the form of a discrete task of optimal management with many quality criteria, adapted for the study of the socio-ecological and economic dynamics of the Russian Federation subject.
Conclusions Mathematical models with statistics data control parameters are an appropriate tool to study sustainable development at the regional level, taking into account the current trends of social, economic and environmental indicators. Using the statistics of an individual region as a model's basis takes into account the region's specificity, the conditions and constraints that must be met in order to implement a scenario of sustainable development, and makes it possible and reasonable to apply this approach as a reliable apparatus in making long-term management decisions.

Keywords: sustainable development, mathematical model, optimal control, social, economic and ecological system


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