The background for global gas market transformation: an overview of evaluation of global and regional reserves and prospects for production of unconventional hydrocarbons
Importance The article represents an overview of original (primary) studies published within 1997 through 2014 that evaluate reserves of unconventional hydrocarbon resources and forecast the development of shale oil and gas production technologies. Objectives The research aims at evaluating the relevance and reliability of the information database used to provide forecasts on the development of global hydrocarbon markets, both in the scientific milieu and business community. Methods When selecting studies for a bibliographic analysis, we apply the snowball sampling approach relying upon three starting points (studies in Russian, English and Chinese). Results In the process of the bibliographical analysis, we find out that a majority of the selected studies give no reference to data underlying the estimates and fail to describe evaluation methods and input assumptions (assertions) used to make judgments. Most studies present point estimates of unconventional hydrocarbon resources instead of internal or probabilistic ones of definite statistical significance. Estimates of reserves vary a lot throughout the same regions since various sources indicate different unconventional hydrocarbon recoverability factors. Based on the sources selected for the analysis, we prepare a chart showing how estimates of shale gas reserves scatter throughout the most explored regions of the world. We find that the estimates may differ two- to sevenfold in various regions. Furthermore, the estimates tend to fall in the most explored regions, such as the USA and Canada; meanwhile they rise in the regions that are respectively new for exploration (Ukraine, Russia, Venezuela, Argentina, Republic of South Africa, etc.) as a result of new oil and gas bearing sections of geological structures discovered there. Conclusions and Relevance As a result of the research, we formulate possible paths for further energy surveys, which are still relevant, notwithstanding numerous researches on the 'shale oil and gas revolution' in the Russian and foreign scientific and analytical literature.
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