Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

Mathematical modeling of a cyclical trend in the investment and construction sphere of the Russian Federation under innovative transformations

Vol. 16, Iss. 11, NOVEMBER 2017

Received: 22 June 2017

Received in revised form: 24 August 2017

Accepted: 23 October 2017

Available online: 29 November 2017


JEL Classification: С32, С53, О33

Pages: 2177–2188

Geras'kina I.N. Saint-Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

Kudryavtsev A.Yu. AO All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of Radio Engineering, Moscow, Russian Federation

Importance At the present stage of its development, the economic science requires timely and qualitative forecasting of economic system's crisis. The article considers new approaches to studying the trends in and management of complex systems, taking into account the natural behavior and properties identified in the process of economic and mathematical modeling.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to devise a mathematical model describing the cyclical development of the Russian investment and construction sector for qualitative forecasts and support to management decisions.
Methods We apply the analysis of the phase space to identify the existing attractors of the economic system, transition between them, and conditions facilitating a switch from one state to another. The phase curve provides a visual representation of the trend in economic system's development, which is essential for making strategic decisions based on economic-mathematical modeling.
Results We have developed a user-friendly economic and mathematical model. It enables to use statistical data and describe cyclic and transition processes; to qualitatively predict the value of a new cycle of the Russian investment and construction sector; to identify the sensitivity of parameters of the order to the dynamics of governing variables, the bifurcation state and behavior of the object under certain managerial influence.
Conclusions Approximation of statistical data, analysis of phase curves of resulting variables helped obtain a mathematical model of cyclic development of the economic system under consideration.

Keywords: investment-construction sector, economic system, modeling, cyclical development


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