Subject The article addresses methods to assess the impact of customs agencies' key performance indicators and to forecast on their basis the volume of customs charges on the Orenburg customs case. Objectives The purpose is to identify the extent to which the key performance indicators of customs agencies influence the movement of customs payments on the basis of developed factor models, and to project these values in the near term. Methods I employ general scientific research techniques, like dialectic, monographic methods, logical analysis, comparison, and the method of correlative regression and factor analysis. Results I reviewed the works of Russian and foreign scientists on customs charges in customs unions and performed a factor analysis of various economic indicators. The paper presents and scientifically proves the procedure for a factor analysis of customs charges by regional customs, as well as a primary system of factors based on statistical observation. The findings can be applied by customs authorities in their operations and in the educational process of higher schools. Conclusions and Relevance The federal budget replenishment by customs payments closely correlates with a number of performance indicators of customs agencies. The regression models built on the basis of the performance indicators enabled to get a very accurate forecast.
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