Importance Considering the dramatically changed macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions of the country's economic development during the recent half a year, there is a need to forecast the core macroeconomic indicator, i.e. a gross domestic product (GDP) under various scenarios of internal economy development, taking into account the sharp fall in oil prices, the continuing conflict in Ukraine, and the sanctions against Russia introduced by countries of the world. Objectives The objective is to conduct the statistical modeling of GDP of Russia and its structure for 2015-2017, taking into account the deteriorated economic and geopolitical situation, and identify the most important factors influencing the changes in the gross domestic product. Methods We applied statistical methods of structure and forecasting, like the multivariate regression analysis, autoregressive modeling (using the ARIMA models), and benchmarking of the considered management systems. Results The modeling allowed obtaining predicted values of GDP under three scenarios of the country's economic development, i.e. inertial economy, active economy, and worsening economic conditions. In addition, we considered the GDP structure forecast by types of economic activity and primary income classification. Conclusions and Relevance The statistical models indicated that economic recession was a result of unplanned changes in the market environment, such as drastic reduction in world oil prices and sanctions against Russia. The State should take urgent measures to recover the economy by significantly reducing the recession period and smoothing out its consequences.
Keywords: GDP, forecast, modeling, regression model, autoregressive-moving average model, ARIMA
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