Serkov L.A.Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation dsge2012@mail.ru
Importance Searching for fiscal and monetary policies that tolerate uncertainty and do not lead to negative implications under any possible distortion of economic model's specifications is particularly relevant in dynamic model development. The article explores the effect of the degree of interaction between the central bank and the government on policy stability, using a neo-Keynesian model. Objectives The aims are to analyze fiscal and monetary policies from the perspective of their robustness to non-structural uncertainties under interactions between monetary and fiscal authorities when developing both a commitment-based policy and a discretionary policy; to provide recommendations for designing a policy that would be tolerant to non-structural uncertainties. Methods The study employs economic and mathematical methods and computer simulation techniques. Results I found that a coordinated interaction between fiscal and monetary authorities when developing both a commitment-based policy and a discretionary policy is effective only when the central bank has greater bargaining power. This is true for a model with the worst-case scenario and for a model with tolerant-to-uncertainty policy. For a regime with commitments, the increasing domination of the government results in the distortion of the response of government spending to inflation shock. Under a discretionary policy, the increasing domination of the government in interactions with the central bank reduces the role of distortions introduced to the standard model. Conclusions The findings on developing a policy that is tolerant to non-structural uncertainties should be considered in the analysis of monetary and fiscal policies in macroeconomic dynamic models.
Hansen L.P., Sargent T.J. Robust control of forward-looking models. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, vol. 50, iss. 3, pp. 581–604. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00026-6
Hansen L.P., Sargent T.J. Robust permanent income and pricing. The Review of Economic Studies, 1999, vol. 66, iss. 4, pp. 873–907. doi: 10.1111/1467-937X.00112
Hansen L.P., Sargent T.J. Acknowledging misspecification in macroeconomic theory. Review of Economic Dynamics, 2001, vol. 4, iss. 3, pp. 519–535. doi: 10.1006/redy.2001.0132
Hansen L.P., Sargent T.J. Robust control and model uncertainty in macroeconomics. URL: Link
Maevskii V.V., Kharin Yu.S. [Robust regressive forecasting under functional distortions in a model]. Avtomatika i telemekhanika = Automation and Remote Control, 2002, vol. 63, no. 11, pp. 1803–1820. (In Russ.)
Kuznetsova O.S. Ustoichivaya k neopredelennosti denezhno-kreditnaya politika v monetarnom soyuze [A tolerant-to-uncertainty monetary policy in the Monetary Union]. Moscow, NRU HSE Publ., 2011, 40 p.
Giordani P., Söderlind P. Solution of macromodels with Hansen-Sargent robust policies: Some extensions. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2004, vol. 28, iss. 12, pp. 2367–2397. doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2003.11.001
Clarida R., Gali J., Gertler M. The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian Perspective. Journal of Economic Literature, 1999, vol. 37, iss. 4, pp. 1661–1707. doi: 10.1257/jel.37.4.1661
Clarida R., Gali J., Gertler M. Optimal monetary policy in open versus closed economies: An integrated approach. American Economic Review, 2001, vol. 91, iss. 2, pp. 248–252. doi: 10.1257/aer.91.2.248
Clarida R., Gali J., Gertler M. A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2002, vol. 49, iss. 5, pp. 879–904.
Kirsanova T., Stehn S., Vines D. The interactions between fiscal policy and monetary policy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2005, vol. 21, iss. 4, pp. 532–564.
Walsh C. Monetarnaya teoriya i monetarnaya politika [Monetary Theory and Policy]. Moscow, Delo Publ., 2014, 632 p.
Woodford M. Interest and Prices. Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2004, 808 p.
Fragetta M., Kirsanova T. Strategic monetary and fiscal policy interactions: An empirical investigation. European Economic Review, 2010, vol. 54, iss. 7, pp. 855–879. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2010.02.003
Dixit A., Lambertini L. Interactions of commitment and discretion in monetary and fiscal policies. American Economic Review, 2003, vol. 93, iss. 5, pp. 1522–1542. doi: 10.1257/000282803322655428
Schmitt-Grohe S., Uribe M. Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under imperfect competition. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2004, vol. 26, iss. 2, pp. 183–209 doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2003.11.002
Schmitt-Grohe S., Uribe M. Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices. Journal of Economic Theory, 2004, vol. 114, iss. 2, pp. 198–230. doi: 10.1016/S0022-0531(03)00111-X
Benigno P., Woodford M. Linear-quadratic approximation of optimal policy problems. Journal of Economic Theory, 2012, vol. 147, iss. 1, pp. 1–42. doi: 10.1016/j.jet.2011.10.012