Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Assessing the risk inherent in innovation processes

Vol. 17, Iss. 8, AUGUST 2018

Received: 4 July 2018

Received in revised form: 16 July 2018

Accepted: 26 July 2018

Available online: 29 August 2018

Subject Heading: Innovation

JEL Classification: С02, С22, О13

Pages: 1465–1475

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.17.8.1465

Boldyrevskii P.B. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
bpavel2@rambler.ru

ORCID id: not available

Igoshev A.K. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
akigoshev@iee.unn.ru

ORCID id: not available

Kistanova L.A. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
lakistanova@mail.ru

ORCID id: not available

Importance Innovation activities are associated with high risk, therefore, building effective models to assess risks of innovative processes is a critical task of economic analysis and innovation management.
Objectives The study focuses on economic and mathematical model building, enabling the quantitative and qualitative analysis of risk factors of innovative processes on the basis of probabilistic characteristics and hazard considerations.
Methods We employ methods of systems analysis and the concepts of fuzzy logic adapted to the management theory. MATLAB serve as a basic software.
Results We present a relatively new approach to innovative process risk assessment based on the fuzzy logic theory. Our calculations show the possibility of risk assessment by stages throughout the life cycle of the innovation. We formulated and analyzed algorithms to assess and manage risks associated with innovative processes at a certain stage of project implementation.
Conclusions The paper offers a methodology to assess risks of innovative processes based on the fuzzy logic. The methods enable to distinguish risks that are not significant and those requiring special attention and control at all interrelated stages of innovative projects. We also give examples of calculations of probability characteristics and risk levels.

Keywords: economic sustainability, innovation process, risk, fuzzy logic

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