Subject The study presents a hands-on approach to assessing the budget performance within the budget system of the Russian Federation in the volatile modern economy. Objectives The aim is to develop a method to assess risks in the budget sphere arising from budget execution through determining the relative risk per budget execution. Methods As a basic approach, we apply the method of assessing the risks of budget execution at any level, which rests on the probability law. A distinctive feature of the study is budget execution risk assessment in comparison with the planned value. We use relative indicators to neutralize incidental circumstances and provide maximum objectivity of obtained results. Results The paper refines the theoretical framework for the analysis of budget security of the Federal budget through using the risk of dynamics term. We developed methods to assess integrated risk of budget execution on the basis of risk-oriented approach. Conclusions We offer a universal method of budget management. It enables to evaluate budget performance efficiency, using a risk-oriented approach. The method will help make informed decisions on budget policy implementation at any level of government, using objective indicators in the condition of economic volatility, and ensure budget security.
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