Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Forecasting the trends in the Russian labor flow

Vol. 17, Iss. 10, OCTOBER 2018

Received: 11 May 2018

Received in revised form: 6 July 2018

Accepted: 20 July 2018

Available online: 31 October 2018

Subject Heading: ANALYSIS OF HUMAN CAPITAL

JEL Classification: J16, J21, J23, J26, K31

Pages: 1882–1897

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.17.10.1882

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation
walera712006@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6198-3157

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation
alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru

ORCID id: not available

Subject The article investigates the changes in the Russian labor flow and deals with forecasting the Russian labor flow by region, type of economic activity and gender differences.
Objectives We focus on formation of forecasts of trends in the Russian labor flow on the basis of balance of the number of hired and retired employees by region, type of economic activity, and gender rates of growth by type of economic activity.
Methods The study relies on the systems approach, using the elements of graphic and factor analysis.
Results The results of forecasting the changes in the Russian labor flows by region and type of economic activity enabled their ranking to identify the most stable regions with positive and negative dynamics. We revealed reasons for positive and negative changes in labor flows by region and economic activity. The analysis of gender rate of growth by economic activity helped define the most mobile category. The findings may be used to design optimal economic space in Russia with adequate labor resources, taking into account gender differences.
Conclusions The study provides a fresh approach to the Russian labor flow, without reference to highly profitable regions, and consider it in conjunction with types of economic activity and gender differences, in the context of the new indicator of efficient economic development of Russia.

Keywords: gender difference, forecasting, labor flow, economic activity

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