Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

Market conditions at the meso-economic level in the Mari El Republic: The effects of micro-level factors

Vol. 17, Iss. 11, NOVEMBER 2018

Received: 23 July 2018

Received in revised form: 20 August 2018

Accepted: 17 September 2018

Available online: 29 November 2018


JEL Classification: C53, D5, F47, G17, L1

Pages: 2010–2026

Chernykh V.V. Volga State University of Technology, Yoshkar-Ola, Mari El Republic, Russian Federation

Subject The study considers the methods for market forecast at meso-economic level, technologies for administrative barriers elimination, and techniques for negative external effects prevention.
Objectives The aim is to explore applicability of calculation techniques and create models to predict market performance on the basis of various factors influencing the market development at the meso-economic level.
Methods To predict the market situation at the meso-economic level, I apply stochastic models, models of indicative planning, statistical and dynamic models, and methods to assess of harmonization.
Results The paper systematizes methods for market forecast at local and meso-economic levels, technologies for administrative barriers elimination at the meso-level, and presents techniques for negative external effects neutralization. It shows trends in foreign trade turnover, export and import flows, accounts receivable and payable in the Mari El Republic. I revealed external effects caused by the existence of administrative barriers, like obstacles to incurring debts and to violations of labor legislation (positive), and an increase in taxes and insurance contributions (negative).
Conclusions The novelty aspect of the study is that it investigates the impact of externalities at the micro-level on cyclical fluctuations of markets at the meso-economic level (such factors as compliance with labor legislation, payment of wages, status of housing and communal services). I recommend annual monitoring of socio-economic situation in regions based on comprehensive assessment of market conditions. This will enable to take necessary measures in the event of declining living standards.

Keywords: forecasting technique, externality, administrative barriers, meso-economic level


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