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Structural transformation of the Russian economy in the employment context: An analysis of trends and forecast

Vol. 18, Iss. 2, FEBRUARY 2019

Received: 26 November 2018

Received in revised form: 10 December 2018

Accepted: 21 December 2018

Available online: 28 February 2019


JEL Classification: E00, E24, E27, F66, J21

Pages: 217–233

Vikharev V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Subject The article investigates the structural transformation of the Russian economy, problems related to its assessment and analysis, and identifies the need for improving the relevant methodological tools.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to define approaches, assess and reveal tendencies, and give forecasts of structural transformation of the Russian economy.
Methods I employ methods of dynamic, statistical, comparative and regression analysis.
Results The analysis of structural changes in the Russian economy shows that the share of the employed in the service sector is steadily increasing, while other sectors demonstrate an inverse trend. The presented conservative forecast of changes in the structure of the Russian economy up to 2027 shows that the share of employment in the service industry will continue increasing, and in other industries it will shrink.
Conclusions The service sector currently acts as a buffer, where former employees from industry and agriculture are accumulated due to increased labor efficiency in these sectors. However, the public sector has not evolved to the level of the leading countries.

Keywords: structural transformation, economic sector, employment, labor productivity


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