Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

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The influence of economic cycles and crises on the Industrial Production Index in Russia

Vol. 18, Iss. 2, FEBRUARY 2019

Received: 4 December 2018

Received in revised form: 18 December 2018

Accepted: 28 December 2018

Available online: 28 February 2019

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS

JEL Classification: С02, С22, О13

Pages: 384–396

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.18.2.384

Boldyrevskii P.B. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
bpavel2@rambler.ru

ORCID id: not available

Igoshev A.K. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
akigoshev@iee.unn.ru

ORCID id: not available

Kistanova L.A. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
lakistanova@mail.ru

ORCID id: not available

Subject The article addresses the impact of interrelated factors of cyclicity and crisis phenomena on the industrial production index.
Objectives The aim is to investigate trends and dependencies and build economic and mathematical models enabling to carry out quantitative and qualitative analysis of changes in the industrial production index in Russia, taking into account the influence of cyclicity and crisis phenomena.
Methods We employ methods of systems analysis and econometrics. The STATISTICA software package was used for mathematical and statistical modeling, charts and reliability analysis of the constructed models. The Rosstat data for 2000–2017 served as information base for economic and mathematical model development.
Results We present economic and mathematical models, which enable to estimate the impact of factors determining the level of investment, innovation and labor productivity on the industrial production index in Russia. The paper includes econometric equations and graphical interpretation of the correlation of factors determining the dynamics of the said index in the manufacturing industry.
Conclusions The factor of investments in fixed capital has the most significant influence on the industrial production index. The analysis of time series shows that the dynamics of the index is subject to the universal laws of cyclical development. In general, the mechanism of changes in the industrial production index is rather complicated and depends on structural peculiarities of the main branches of Russian economy.

Keywords: economic cycle, crisis, industrial production index, manufacturing industry

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