Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

Abstracting and Indexing

Referativny Zhurnal VINITI RAS
Google Scholar

Online available



Cyberleninka (12 month OA embargo)

The influence of economic cycles and crises on the Industrial Production Index in Russia

Vol. 18, Iss. 2, FEBRUARY 2019

Received: 4 December 2018

Received in revised form: 18 December 2018

Accepted: 28 December 2018

Available online: 28 February 2019


JEL Classification: С02, С22, О13

Pages: 384–396

Boldyrevskii P.B. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Igoshev A.K. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Kistanova L.A. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Subject The article addresses the impact of interrelated factors of cyclicity and crisis phenomena on the industrial production index.
Objectives The aim is to investigate trends and dependencies and build economic and mathematical models enabling to carry out quantitative and qualitative analysis of changes in the industrial production index in Russia, taking into account the influence of cyclicity and crisis phenomena.
Methods We employ methods of systems analysis and econometrics. The STATISTICA software package was used for mathematical and statistical modeling, charts and reliability analysis of the constructed models. The Rosstat data for 2000–2017 served as information base for economic and mathematical model development.
Results We present economic and mathematical models, which enable to estimate the impact of factors determining the level of investment, innovation and labor productivity on the industrial production index in Russia. The paper includes econometric equations and graphical interpretation of the correlation of factors determining the dynamics of the said index in the manufacturing industry.
Conclusions The factor of investments in fixed capital has the most significant influence on the industrial production index. The analysis of time series shows that the dynamics of the index is subject to the universal laws of cyclical development. In general, the mechanism of changes in the industrial production index is rather complicated and depends on structural peculiarities of the main branches of Russian economy.

Keywords: economic cycle, crisis, industrial production index, manufacturing industry


  1. O'Connor J., McDermott I. Iskusstvo sistemnogo myshleniya: neobkhodimye znaniya o sistemakh i tvorcheskom podkhode k resheniyu problem [The Art of Systems Thinking: Essential Skills for Creativity and Problem Solving]. Moscow, Al'pina Biznes Buks Publ., 2006, 320 p.
  2. Maiorov A.A. [Geoinformation system analysis]. Perspektivy nauki i obrazovaniya, 2014, no. 4, pp. 42–48. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  3. Gorshenin V.F., Gorshenina D.A. [Cyclical development of nonlinear economic systems]. Vestnik Chelyabinskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta = CSU Bulletin, 2014, no. 15, pp. 32–39. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  4. Dudin M.N., Lyasnikov N.V., Senin A.S., Kapustin S.N. The Cyclicity of the Development of the Global Economic System amid Present-Day Globalization. European Researcher, 2014, vol. 84, iss. 10-1, pp. 1752–1764. URL: Link
  5. Kaganovich A.A. [Stability of spatio–time economic systems]. Izvestiya Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Bulletin of Saint-Petersburg State University of Economics, 2017, no. 2, pp. 12–16. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  6. Butorina O.V. [Theoretical foundations on the factor systematization in the cyclical development of economic systems (Russia, Perm)]. Problemy sovremennoi ekonomiki = Problems of Modern Economics, 2014, no. 1, pp. 65–68. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  7. Airapetyan M.S. [Russia's monetary policy in the context of periodic cyclical fluctuations]. Problemy teorii i praktiki upravleniya = Theoretical and Practical Aspects of Management, 2016, no. 8, pp. 50–63. (In Russ.)
  8. Podkorytov V.N. [Economic cycles: Theoretical conclusions or practical results]. Izvestiya Ural'skogo gosudarstvennogo gornogo universiteta = News of Ural State Mining University, 2014, no. 4, pp. 63–67. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  9. Ovechkina N.I., Shul'gina N.A. [Cyclicity theory in economics and demography]. Vestnik NGUEU = Vestnik NSUEM, 2012, no. 2, pp. 105–110. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  10. Bernanke B.S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1983, vol. 98, iss. 1, pp. 85–106. URL: Link
  11. Borovskaya M.A., Shevchenko I.K., Razvadovskaya Yu.V. Upravlenie strukturnymi preobrazovaniyami v ekonomike promyshlennogo sektora: teoretiko-prikladnye aspekty realizatsii strukturnoi i promyshlennoi politiki [Management of structural changes in the economy of the industrial sector: Theoretical and applied aspects of structural and industrial policy implementation]. Moscow, Krasand Publ., 2013, 256 p.
  12. Raiskaya N.N., Sergienko Ya.V., Frenkel' A.A. [Use of integral indices for the analysis of cyclic changes of Russian economy]. Voprosy Statistiki, 2009, no. 12, pp. 91–97. (In Russ.)
  13. Safiullin M.R., El'shin L.A., Prygunova M.I. [Mechanisms and methods for statistical analysis and tracing of shifts in phases of cyclical development of the economy under increased uncertainty of the institutional and market environment]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2016, no. 10, pp. 34–45. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  14. Mitrofanova M.Yu. [To a question of labor productivity]. Vestnik Chuvashskogo Universiteta, 2010, no. 1, pp. 430–433. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  15. Semenova A.A. [Management of innovative processes]. Ekonomist = Economist, 2004, no. 5, pp. 46–53. (In Russ.)
  16. Boldyrevskii P.B., Igoshev A.K., Kistanova L.A. [Analysis of the main factors of economic stability of industrial enterprises in Russia]. Vestnik Nizhegorodskogo universiteta im. N.I. Lobachevskogo. Ser.: Sotsial'nye nauki = Vestnik of Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod. Social Sciences, 2018, no. 1, pp. 7–13. URL: Link (In Russ.)

View all articles of issue


ISSN 2311-8725 (Online)
ISSN 2073-039X (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 18, Iss. 4
April 2019