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An economic analysis of trends in the Russian demography

Vol. 18, Iss. 3, MARCH 2019

Received: 4 December 2018

Received in revised form: 14 December 2018

Accepted: 28 December 2018

Available online: 29 March 2019


JEL Classification: J10, J18, P50, P59

Pages: 550–567

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Subject The article deals with the Russian economic demography.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to perform an economic analysis of the Russian demography and identify determinants of its dynamics.
Methods We employ the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, cluster, and non-parametric analysis.
Results We consider the methodology for economic analysis of trends in the demography in the context of spatial stability of demographic processes and economic growth. The paper shows that the per capita GDP growth positively correlates with the difference between the working-age population and total population growth. However, it negatively correlates with coefficients of child and old-age dependency. Low susceptibility of wage increase to changes in the level of employment is a negative phenomenon for economic growth, whereas a reduction in income inequality, rise in labor productivity, and labor force mobility are positive ones.
Conclusions The Russian economic demography dynamics is determined by uneven population density and a shift in the balance of migration, which affects significantly the average age of the population. In the future, this will substantially strengthen requirements for unemployment and total employment level.

Keywords: childbearing age, total population, mortality rate, population density, net migration rate


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