Gaisin R.S.Russian Timiryazev State Agrarian University, Moscow, Russian Federation gaisin@rgau-msha.ru ORCID id: not available
Bykov D.V.Russian Timiryazev State Agrarian University, Moscow, Russian Federation bykov1997@mail.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject The banking sector, having an increasing impact on the economy, is very receptive to changes occurring at the macro- and micro-level. This area of bank activity is assuming greater urgency in conditions of international integration, unstable political situation in the world and increased likelihood of financial crises. Objectives We aim to develop a methodology and test the statistical evaluation of financial and economic crises’ influence on the condition of the Russian banking sector. Methods The study employs the correlation and regression analysis, including the multidimensional average-based one, the method of periodization, time series analysis, method of extrapolation. Results Our retrospective statistical analysis of the impact of financial crises on banking activities showed a strong and direct link. However, the default of 1998 differs significantly from the crises of 2008 and 2014 in terms of its implications for the banking environment. The paper includes a forecast of main indicators of banking activity with regard to potential financial crises for the period up to 2021. Conclusions Macroeconomic indicators most affected by inflationary pressures are increasing even during periods of crisis, while banking indicators suggest decelerating growth. Our unique methods enabled to reveal a tendency to GDP growth and GDP deflator decrease.
Tikhonova A.V. [State financial support to agricultural cooperation: What should we do – to look at the West or ‘watch our step’?]. Bukhuchet v sel'skom khozyaistve = Accounting in Agriculture, 2016, no. 2, pp. 51-64. (In Russ.)
Savchenko T.V., Kamyshanchenko E.N., Saverina Yu.N. [Current status and prospective lines of developmet of the Russian banking sector]. Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta = Vestnik of Voronezh State Agrarian University, 2016, no. 2, pp. 218–223. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Zaruk N.F., Tikhonova A.V., Sergeev A.V. [Econometric modeling of financial system indicators as a tool of macroeconomic planning]. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit, 2017, vol. 23, iss. 33, pp. 1956–1967. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Kolpakov V.S. [The influence of external factors on the banking sector in the times of financial and economic crisis]. Sibirskii ekonomicheskii vestnik, 2016, no. 4, pp. 103–113. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Larina A.A., Tishin P.Ya. [Key Rate of the Central Bank as a Factor of Influence on the Credit Bank Policy]. Teoriya i praktika sovremennoi nauki = Theory and Practice of Modern Science, 2018, no. 5, pp. 466–469. (In Russ.)
Khamidullina A.S. [The essence and factors of banking risks]. Sovremennye innovatsii = Modern Innovation, 2017, no. 8, pp. 26–30. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Saitgalina L.S., Rastegaeva F.S. [To the question of the nature, classification and management of banking risks]. Juvenis Scientia, 2017, no. 12, pp. 42–44. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Grigor'eva T.A. [The influence of external and internal factors on the risk management efficiency of the banking sector]. Innovatsionnoe razvitie ekonomiki = Innovative Development of Economy, 2016, no. 2, pp. 82–85. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Revenkov P.V. [Extending the profile of bank risk under conditions of work in cyberspace]. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit, 2018, vol. 24, iss. 11, pp. 2471–2485. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Smirnov D.V. [Economic security in the field of banking]. Simvol nauki = Symbol of Science, 2017, no. 5, pp. 109–111. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Khachaturyan A.A., Paina A.V. [Definition internal audit functions while respecting the rules of compliance control]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo = Journal of Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2014, no. 5-2, pp. 565–567. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Shamkhalova E.A. [The main characteristics of the bank liquidity risk]. Gorizonty ekonomiki, 2013, no. 6, pp. 100–104. (In Russ.)
Lanets S.V. [Research internal and external factors that affect the financial stability of banks]. Baltiiskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal, 2017, no. 2, pp. 4–13. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Shamkhalova E.A. [Risks and risk-forming factors in banking]. Segodnya i zavtra rossiiskoi ekonomiki = Today and Tomorrow of Russian Economy, 2011, no. 48, pp. 103–109. (In Russ.)
Rudakova M.V. [Management of Currency Risk]. Ekonomika i Sotsium, 2017, no. 4, pp. 1165–1168. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Fedorov V.M. [On the truth of causes and consequences of the banking crisis of 1998]. Aktual'nye problemy gumanitarnykh i estestvennykh nauk = Topical Issues of Humanities and Sciences, 2009, no. 4, pp. 100–101. (In Russ.)
Mirenskaya M.V., Mirenskii D.V. [Mortgage crisis in the USA in 2007–2008 and its impact on the global economy]. Voprosy ekonomiki i prava = Problems of Economics and Law, 2012, no. 50, pp. 211–214. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Lysokon' A. [On the issue of causes of the global financial crisis of 2008–2010]. RISK: Resursy, Informatsiya, Snabzhenie, Konkurentsiya = RISK: Resources, Information, Supply, Competition, 2012, no. 1, pp. 215–220. (In Russ.)
Vinokurov M.A. [The economic crisis in Russia in 2014 and possible ways to overcome it]. Izvestiya Irkutskoi gosudarstvennoi ekonomicheskoi akademii = Izvestiya of Irkutsk State Economics Academy, 2015, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 261–267. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Pinskaya M.R., Melnichuk M.V., Frumina S.V., Tikhonova A.V. Problems of creating a favorable investment climate in Russian regions. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2016, vol. 6, no. 8, pp. 300–306. URL: Link
Bychkov A.A., Podlinnykh D.A. [The Russian banking sector under the influence of the 2014–2015 crisis]. Molodoi uchenyi = Young Scientist, 2015, no. 10, pp. 548–551. URL: Link (In Russ.)
