Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

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An approach to forecasting the results from future activities of engineering enterprises

Vol. 18, Iss. 6, JUNE 2019

Received: 19 February 2019

Received in revised form: 4 April 2019

Accepted: 15 May 2019

Available online: 28 June 2019

Subject Heading: EVALUATION OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS

JEL Classification: D24, O22, O32

Pages: 1030–1039

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.18.6.1030

Kurskii V.A. Tula State University (TulSU), Tula, Russian Federation
kurskiy44@mail.ru

ORCID id: not available

Vasin L.A. Tula State University (TulSU), Tula, Russian Federation
vasin-la@yandex.ru

ORCID id: not available

Subject The article describes a methodological approach to modeling the net cash flows from innovation based on presentation of results in the form of growth rates compared with the base level.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to develop recommendations for assessing cash flows from new activities, creating a strategic portfolio of the enterprise with the maximum synergistic effect, and mitigating financial risks associated with innovation.
Methods The proposed approach rests on the hierarchical model that determines the cause-effect relationships and the impact of results from new activities on the target function of the enterprise. It also relies on the utility function and its components that define the contribution of innovation product to enterprise goals.
Results We developed a methodology for forecasting, which is characterized by presentation of results by certain sources of net cash flows from innovation activity in the form of indices in relation to the basic level; consideration of extrapolation trends and random factors arranged in a hierarchical structure to assess their impact. Our methods use an approach to planning the timing for a new product launch, which would reduce the deviation of sales volumes and financial flows over the years of the planning horizon
Conclusions The findings may be useful for product strategy formation of enterprises. Furthermore, they may be interesting for specialists dealing with innovation development at enterprises.

Keywords: enterprise development, innovative activity, cash flow, capitalized value, synergistic effect

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