Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

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Assessing the financial instability of economic systems: A variety of methods and models

Vol. 18, Iss. 7, JULY 2019

Received: 3 April 2019

Received in revised form: 24 April 2019

Accepted: 17 May 2019

Available online: 30 July 2019

Subject Heading: ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CAPITAL

JEL Classification: C58, E44, G01

Pages: 1273–1294

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.18.7.1273

Malkina M.Yu. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
mmuri@yandex.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3152-3934

Ovcharov A.O. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
anton19742006@yandex.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4921-7780

Subject The paper summarizes the existing methods and models for identification of financial instability in economic systems, analyzes interrelations between macroeconomic indicators of Russia that demonstrate the impact of destabilizing factors on economic processes.
Objectives The main objective is to systematize methodological approaches to and specific models of quantitative assessment of financial instability and consider interrelations between the indicators of instability in the Russian economy.
Methods We employ general scientific methods of analysis, comparison, generalization, statistical methods for processing economic data and constructing integral indicators, econometric techniques for autoregressive model estimation.
Results The paper summarizes approaches and directions of quantitative assessment of financial instability in economic systems, evaluates the results of studies by Russian and foreign authors obtained on the basis of the developed system of early warning indicators of financial instability. We define possibilities for econometric modeling of a wide range of variables, which are indicative of instability, volatility or predictability of economic system behavior. Furthermore, we calculated the integral volatility index enabling to reveal a period of financial instability along with the main indicators trend movement.
Conclusions The proposed dependencies and integral volatility indicator point to recurring periods of instability in the Russian economic system, which are strongly influenced by the changing situation in the world oil markets.

Keywords: financial instability, modeling, assessment, macroeconomic indicator

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