Importance The article discusses the process of economic and mathematical modeling of time series describing the volatility of the bitcoin exchange rate through the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. Objectives We search for, and substantiate tools and mechanisms used to predict the cryptocurrency market developments. Methods The research applies tools of stochastic analysis of stationary and non-stationary time series. Results The ARIMA models provide for rather precise estimates of current and future changes in the digital money rates for a three to four month’s time. Conclusions and Relevance The bitcoin price will have approximated USD 11,000 by the end of Q3 2018. The methodological approaches to modeling help determine not only future trends, but also changes in exchange rates throughout the entire analyzable period. The findings provide empirical information for cryptocurrency market regulators and business community.
Keywords: cryptocurrency market, forecast, modeling, time series, stochastic analysis, bitcoin
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