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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Budgetary risks and budgetary errors

Vol. 8, Iss. 12, MARCH 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Available online: 31 March 2015

Subject Heading: RISK, ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 15-24

Gamukin V.V. Tyumen State University, Tyumen, Russian Federation
valgam@mail.ru

Importance The development of the national economy in 2014-2015 dramatically aggravated the ability to predict budgetary risks by the established system of State administration. The current situation with budgets in Russia evolves under the influence of the overall system of budgetary risks.
     Objectives The research aims to analyze budgetary risks and budgetary errors. It is necessary to highlight the following risks: risks associated with traditional financial and economic operations; inflation risks; risks of discrete control; risks of reduced taxpayer solvency; risks of political environment; risks of unsteady receipts and payments; risks of budget revenue structure; risks of budget expenditures structure; risks of unbalanced budget; risks of dependence on external sources; risks of error; risks of objective unpredictability of situation; risks of economic crisis; corruption risks, and budget development risks.
     Methods I emphasize that to assess the risk of error, it is necessary to make sure that general logic mistakes are available during the budgetary risk assessment. In the proposed paper, I have analyzed 27 errors applicable for the Russian practice of budget preparation and execution.
     Results I identified all variants of errors. I also proposed the ideal parameters of a non-existent budget. The aforementioned budget should be forecasted and planned with the involvement of a wide range of experts. Draft budget should be discussed in terms of real collegiality. All projected tax and non-tax revenues should be perfectly performed in accordance with an adopted schedule of payments. All planned expenditures should be performed in a similar manner. At the same time, the arrangement should completely eliminate the factor of corruption. There should be no unexpected events or catastrophes.
     Conclusions and Relevance I conclude that real budgets are prepared and executed under real conditions. Real budgets will always have risks, and the main task of the State administration and management is to be able to manage a budget with persisting fiscal risk level, rather than to aspire to perfect budget conditions.

Keywords: budgetary risk, error phenomenon, fiscal indicators, measurement

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