Importance Any investment project is based on certain principles, with the analysis of project risks playing an important role. The current economic situation is volatile and unstable. It should be taken into account when taking reasonable and appropriate investment project decisions. Therefore, it is especially relevant to consider non-stationary conditions when analyzing risks associated with investment projects. Objectives The research uses tools of mathematical modeling in economics as applied during making investment project decisions under volatility. The research aims at identifying the principal properties of non-stationary situation so to adapt traditional methods of risk analysis respectively, brief review of risk analysis techniques and methods used in the project approach, presenting how unconventional risk analysis approaches may be applied in non-stationary conditions, and developing economic and mathematical models. Methods The article describes the main and most frequent methods for analyzing project risks, adapts classical methods of risk analysis to non-stationary conditions, and analyzes possibilities of applying some unconventional risk analysis approaches and economic and mathematical modeling methods in non-stationary conditions. Results The article demonstrates possibilities of using classical approaches to analyzing risks in non-stationary conditions through their adaptation, reviews prospects of using unconventional risk analysis methods, presents tools of economic and mathematical modeling of project risks management processes and formulates prospects of their practical use. Conclusions and Relevance I scrutinized a wide spectrum of approaches and methods used to analyze project risks, including conditional and unconditional approaches. The analysis is of special significance as it overviews methods and tools of risk analysis in real investment. I studied whether the presented methods for analyzing project risks could be adapted to non-stationary conditions. I conclude that it is important to use economic and mathematical modeling tools in non-stationary conditions so to take appropriate investment decisions.
Livshits V.N. O metodologii otsenki effektivnosti rossiiskikh investitsionnykh proektov. Nauchnyi doklad [On the methodology of evaluating the effectiveness of the Russian investment projects: a scientific report]. Moscow, Institute of Economics of RAS Publ., 2009, 70 p.
Livshits V.N., Livshits S.V. Sistemnyi analiz nestatsionarnoi ekonomiki Rossii (1992–2009): rynochnye reformy, krizis, investitsionnaya politika [A systems analysis of the non-stationary economy of Russia (1992–2009): market reforms, crisis, investment policy]. Moscow, Poli Print Servis Publ., 2010, 452 p.
Kachalov R.M. Upravlenie ekonomicheskim riskom: Teoreticheskie osnovy i prilozheniya: monografiya [Economic risk management: theoretical foundations and applications: a monograph]. Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nestor-Istoriya Publ., 2012, 248 p.
Kachalov R.M. Upravlenie khozyaistvennym riskom [Business risk management]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2002, 192 p.
Teryukhov V.E. Risk-analiz investitsionnogo proekta [Risk analysis of the investment project]. Upravlenie riskom = Risk Management, 2002, no. 3, pp. 18–20.
Chernov V.B. Analiz riska kompleksnogo investitsionnogo proekta [Analyzing the risk of a comprehensive investment project]. Upravlenie riskom = Risk Management, 2003, no. 3, pp. 56–64.
Smolyak S.A. Otsenka effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov v usloviyakh riska i neopredelennosti. Teoriya ozhidaemogo effekta [Effectiveness evaluation of investment projects at risk and uncertainty. An expected-effect theory]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2002, 182 p.
Lepeshkina M.N. Metodologicheskie aspekty otsenki riskov [Methodological aspects of risk assessment]. Menedzhment v Rossii i za rubezhom = Management in Russia and Abroad, 2001, no. 6, pp. 88–98.
Sorokina O.V. [Simulation modeling as a method for optimizing investment risks]. Traditsii, innovatsii i investitsii sovremennoi rynochnoi ekonomiki: materialy mezhdunaodnoi konferetsii [Proc. Int. Sci. Conf. Traditions, Innovation and Investment in the Contemporary Market Economy]. Kazan, University of Management TISBI Publ., 2004, vol. 2, pp. 351–355.
Sekerin A.B., Selyutin V.D., Stroev S.P. Nechetko-mnozhestvennaya model' upravleniya riskom ekonomicheskoi nesostoyatel'nosti proizvodstvennogo predpriyatiya [The fuzzy set model for managing the risk of the production company’s economic insolvency]. Upravlenie riskom = Risk Management, 2008, no. 2, pp. 28–35.
Studenikina S.A., Zaslavskaya S.E. [Using mathematical models in risk management]. Sovremennye problemy tekstil'noi i legkoi promyshlennosti: materialy nauchno-tekhnicheskoi konferetsii [Proc. Sci. Conf. Contemporary Problems of Textile and Light Industry]. Moscow, Moscow State University of Technologies and Management Publ., 2004, vol. 2, 160 p.
