Importance. Currently, many scientific leader states view renewable energy as a way to decrease negative ecological consequences and fight climate change, a possibility to reach energetic independence as well as a powerful stimulus for economic growth. Implementing large investment projects in sun and wind energy has allowed many countries to create new sectors of energy engineering, electronics and so on in short periods. Objectives. The research objective is to develop methods of parametric forecasting to evaluate prospects of creating and developing a wind energy-engineering sector in Russia, which is oriented, primarily, on domestic needs. Methods. The methodology is based on the learning curve concept. Using this concept as a framework, we evaluate the possible volumes of production of green energy equipment in Russia and prospects of competitiveness of such industries. A forecast of the production costs including the learning and scale effects is made. Quantitative ratings of these effects' value were obtained based on a statistical analysis of data on capital expenditures on wind projects from the report of the Global Wind Energy Council Results. The methodology suggested by this research allows performing forecasts of development of Russian energy engineering. Obtained results indicate that the market share that Russian manufacturers could count on in case a renewable energy program is implemented by the government is far smaller than that of global leading manufacturers of wind energy equipment and does not warrant a competitive level of cost and price for Russian wind energy equipment. In case a large enough market share (up to 10%) is reached, the work performance of Russian manufacturers on the early stages of development will be equivalent to 70-90% of the performance of leading global manufacturers. This loss can be compensated by tax benefits that stimulate entrepreneurs to localize the production in Russia. Conclusions and Relevance. The research results can be used to correct the state program for development of renewable energy and wind energy engineering.
Keywords: energy equipment machine-building, market share, competitiveness, productivity, learning-by-doing effect
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