Home  Journals  Financial Analytics: Science and Experience  44(278) - 2015 November

Risks of long-term forecasts in the economy of the Russian Federation

Vol. 8, Iss. 44, NOVEMBER 2015

Article PDF Version

Received: 27 August 2015

Received in revised form: 29 September 2015

Accepted: 21 October 2015

Available online: 27 November 2015

Subject Heading: RISK, ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 2-16

Importance The article overviews theoretical and practical aspects of improving the accuracy of forecasts and quality of planning through the mathematical modeling methodology based on algebraic formalization of the general concept of the system.
     Objectives The research pursues setting a formalized algebraic multifactor model of risks of changes in long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation.
     Methods The research is based on a combination of forecasting methods and the methodology for algebraic formalization of the systems approach.
     Results The article presents a brief analysis of some basic factors that determine risks of changes in scenarios of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. The analysis facilitated to set up a formalized algebraic and six-factor model of risks of changes in the long-term development scenarios.
     Conclusions and Relevance Assessing the risks of changes in scenarios of the Russian long-term socio-economic development is an integral part of making the national budgetary policy at the regional and municipal levels. It is necessary to improve the accuracy of forecasts and quality of planning since the national budgetary policy demonstrates a low efficiency without it.

Keywords: modeling, risk, forecast, financial, economic, system

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