Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Abstracting and Indexing

РИНЦ
Referativny Zhurnal VINITI RAS
Worldcat
Google Scholar

Online available

EBSCOhost
Eastview
Elibrary
Biblioclub

Archiving

Cyberleninka (12 month OA embargo)

Reducing the uncertainty through analysis of the system structure

Vol. 12, Iss. 2, JUNE 2019

Received: 27 November 2018

Received in revised form: 24 December 2018

Accepted: 14 January 2019

Available online: 30 May 2019

Subject Heading: RISK, ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

JEL Classification: C51, D21, P42, P52

Pages: 128–149

https://doi.org/10.24891/fa.12.2.128

Sinyavskii N.G. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
synyavsky@list.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1034-6489

Subject There are various methods to reduce the uncertainty of knowledge about the economic system. For instance, through experiment or analysis of the system. The latter enables to improve the quality of information about the system's important integral characteristics. However, this assumption is true only under certain circumstances, which are considered in the article.
Objectives The aim of the study is to unveil conditions for reducing the uncertainty in evaluating the probabilistic characteristics of economic system based on experiments and through the analysis of the system's structure and mutual influence of its elements.
Methods I employ the methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics.
Results The analysis of specifics of the experimental approach shows difficulties as applied to economic systems. The paper illustrates cases when the analysis of economic system reduces the uncertainty of its probabilistic characteristics evaluation. It also shows that the analysis enables to reduce the uncertainty in cases when elementary risks are relatively low (or, on the contrary, relatively high) and the errors of risk assessment are negligible.
Conclusions The analysis of empirical approach to the problem of uncertainty reduction shows that this approach is often difficult for implementation. I also conclude on the effectiveness of such an analysis in cases of practical importance.

Keywords: uncertainty, risk, experiment, analysis, system

References:

  1. Asaul A.N., Skumatov E.G., Lokteeva G.E. Metodologicheskie aspekty formirovaniya i razvitiya predprinimatel'skikh setei [Methodological aspects of formation and development of entrepreneurial networks]. St. Petersburg, Gumanistika Publ., 2004, 256 p.
  2. Babenko N.I. [Risk as a form of manifestation of uncertainty]. Al'manakh sovremennoi nauki i obrazovaniya = Almanac of Modern Science and Education, 2010, no. 3, part 2, pp. 81–84. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  3. Bosov D.B. [Investments in the context of risk and uncertainty. Uncertainty and risk as the characteristics of the investment management process]. Rossiiskoe predprinimatel'stvo = Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship, 2009, no. 7, pp. 51–55. (In Russ.)
  4. Ershov E.B. [Does the one who takes the risk drink champagne? Book review: Kachalov R.M. Economic Risk Management: Theoretical Foundations and Applications]. Rossiiskii zhurnal menedzhmenta = Russian Management Journal, 2014, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 161–164. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  5. Ginzburg M.Yu., Mitin D.V., Chep'yuk O.R. [The political uncertainty as an economic risk factor: Regional perspectives]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2014, no. 32, pp. 2–12. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  6. Ershov M. [Russia and the world: How sustainable is economic growth? Risks and barriers]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2017, no. 12, pp. 63–80. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  7. Doroshenko M.E., Starodubtseva E.B. [The global financial system: The post-crisis order aspects]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, 2015, no. 43, pp. 2–12. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  8. Golovin A.O., Tolkachenko G.L. [Global value chains: Risks and results]. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit, 2017, vol. 23, iss. 3, pp. 160–172. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  9. Ivanov D.A., Ivanova M.A. [Uncertainty and risks in supply chains: Classification of tasks and directions for future research]. Rossiiskii zhurnal menedzhmenta = Russian Management Journal, 2015, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 99–128. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  10. Smetanko A.V. [Applied aspects of internal auditing of buyers and customers settlement of accounts in the conditions of uncertainty and risks]. Mezhdunarodnyi bukhgalterskii uchet = International Accounting, 2014, no. 17, pp. 13–25. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  11. Volostnov N.S., Zharinov V V., Troshin A.S. [Identification of economic risks as a prerequisite for effective management]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2014, no. 32, pp. 14–20. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  12. Endovitskii D.A., Soboleva V.E. [Method of analyzing the efficiency of mergers/acquisitions at the pre-integration stage]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2007, no. 12, pp. 2–9. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  13. Chereshnev V.A., Vasil'eva A.V., Naslunga K.S. [Developing and implementing a methodological approach to evaluating the economic efficiency of the State social programs]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2015, no. 29, pp. 2–14. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  14. Zaernyuk V.M. [Using the scoring models in planning of frequency of audit departments of the commercial bank]. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit, 2013, no. 8, pp. 6–13. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  15. Manuilenko V.V., Sadovskaya T.A. [Methodological approaches to the assessment of the financial result of a joint-stock company in conditions of uncertainty and risk]. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit, 2014, no. 31, pp. 32–42. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  16. Dolgova S.A. [Assessment of production solvency of the agricultural enterprises in conditions of uncertainty and risk]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, 2014, no. 16, pp. 30–36. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  17. Kobalinski M.V. [Economic and institutional aspects of wood enterprise operations of the Krasnoyarsk Krai]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2007, no. 8, pp. 127–136. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  18. Matyushok S.V., Fomina A.V., Khrustalev E.Yu. [A project-based approach as a method of improving economic efficiency of high-tech industrial enterprises]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2014, no. 34, pp. 2–16. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  19. Pankova S.V., Satalkina E.V. [Accountant's professional judgment: Uncertainty, risks and ethics]. Mezhdunarodnyi bukhgalterskii uchet = International Accounting, 2013, no. 27, pp. 10–17. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  20. Klimanov R.I. [Uncertainty and risk when making investment decisions]. Ekonomika, statistika i informatika. Vestnik UMO = Economics, Statistics and Informatics. UMO Bulletin, 2010, no. 6, pp. 70–73. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  21. Galieva G.M. [Modern technology of risk analysis in investment projects]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, 2011, no. 33, pp. 58–64. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  22. Novak A.E., Pimenova E.R. [Analysis of the bankruptcy probability of non-banking financial intermediaries]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, 2014, no. 42, pp. 48–55. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  23. Alferov R.F. [Corporate mortgage portfolio analytics]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, 2010, no. 6, pp. 55–59. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  24. Endovitskii D.A., Levina M.V. [Analysis of the distribution of financial investments organization]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2009, no. 20, pp. 2–8. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  25. Charaeva M.V. [Identification and assessment of financial risks in contemporary business practices]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, 2016, no. 11, pp. 24–33. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  26. Podkopaeva M.O., Nosaeva V.V. [Planning and implementing a strategy for choosing enterprise analysis in the investment building]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2011, no. 4, pp. 24–30. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  27. Klitina N.A. [Formation of the optimum investor's strategies on the Russian stock market by means of game theory methods]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, 2012, no. 47, pp. 41–45. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  28. Gombrikh E. Simvolicheskie obrazy. Ocherki po iskusstvu [Symbolic images. Essays on the art of the Renaissance]. St. Petersburg, Aleteiya Publ., 2017, 408 p.
  29. Grashchenko N.Yu. [Analysis of the relationship between the concepts of 'risk' and 'uncertainty']. Nauchno-tekhnicheskie vedomosti Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo politekhnicheskogo universiteta. Ekonomicheskie nauki = Saint-Petersburg State Polytechnic University Journal. Economics, 2010, no. 6, pp. 242–245. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  30. Tsarev V.V. Otsenka ekonomicheskoi effektivnosti investitsii [Evaluating the economic efficiency of investment]. St. Petersburg, Piter Publ., 2004, 464 p.
  31. Altunin A.E., Semukhin M.V. Modeli i algoritmy prinyatiya reshenii v nechetkikh usloviyakh [Models and algorithms of decision-making under uncertainty]. Tyumen, TSU Publ., 2000, 352 p.
  32. Grashchenko N.Yu., Okorokov V.R. Osobennosti upravleniya slozhnymi proizvodstvennymi sistemami v usloviyakh neopredelennosti [Specifics of complex production system management under uncertainty]. St. Petersburg, Polytechnic University Publ., 2006, 147 p.
  33. Trukhaev R.I. Modeli prinyatiya reshenii v usloviyakh neopredelennosti [Models of decision making under uncertainty]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1981, 258 p.
  34. Sinyavsky N.G. Management of Integrated Risk of Industrial Enterprise. In: Elena G. Popkova (ed.) Overcoming Uncertainty of Institutional Environment as a Tool of Global Crisis Management. Contributions to Economics. Springer International Publishing AG, 2017, pp. 89–104. URL: Link

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-8768 (Online)
ISSN 2073-4484 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 12, Iss. 2
June 2019

Archive