+7 925 966 4690, 9am6pm (GMT+3), Monday – Friday
ИД «Финансы и кредит»

JOURNALS

  

FOR AUTHORS

  

SUBSCRIBE

    
Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Economic policy and GDP dynamics: Evidence from the USA

Vol. 15, Iss. 4, DECEMBER 2022

Received: 14 July 2022

Received in revised form: 29 July 2022

Accepted: 18 August 2022

Available online: 29 November 2022

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC AND STATISTICAL RESEARCH

JEL Classification: F02, F43

Pages: 398–418

https://doi.org/10.24891/fa.15.4.398

Igor' S. IVANCHENKO Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation
ivanchenko_is@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9268-2103

Subject. The article considers cyclical changes of economic policy by U.S. presidents, based on either the neoclassicism concept or the postulates of neomercantilism. This struggle has become especially acute and dramatic for the economies of the rest of the world since 2016, after the election of D. Trump as President of the United States.
Objectives. The aim is to evaluate the impact of the economic policy pursued by U.S. presidents according to the methods of various economic schools, on the dynamics of GDP.
Methods. The study rests on classification of methods for the American economy over the past hundred years and their comparison with statistical data on U.S. GDP growth rates for this period, calculation of correlation coefficient between these economic indicators.
Results. The correlation coefficient between the economic policy pursued by U.S. presidents and the GDP growth rate was equal to 0.87. This is indicative of significant influence of economic policy on the U.S. GDP dynamics. The highest rates of economic growth were observed, when the U.S. economy was managed according to mercantilist principles.
Conclusions. The probability of a new return to the mercantilist methods of managing the U.S. economy and final rejection of globalization policy is quite high. The theoretical understanding of this process will help make adequate decisions in the practice of interstate relations, taking into account the uneven economic growth rates of developed liberal and developing mercantilist countries.

Keywords: mainstream, neoclassical theory, neomercantilism, international economic relations, economic growth

References:

  1. Jacobs M., Laybourn-Langton L. Paradigm Shifts in Economic Theory and Policy. Intereconomics, 2018, vol. 53, iss. 3, pp. 113–118. URL: Link
  2. Keynes J.M. Obshchaya teoriya zanyatosti, protsenta i deneg [The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money]. Moscow, Direkt-Media Publ., 2014, 405 p.
  3. Ivanchenko I.S. [Optimization of Russia’s international reserves structure: Theoretical approaches, practical implementation]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2017, no. 1, pp. 64–80. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  4. McDermott J. Mercantilism and Modern Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1999, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 55–80. URL: Link
  5. Dequech D. Neoclassical, Mainstream, Orthodox, and Heterodox Economics. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2015, vol. 30, iss. 2, pp. 279–302. URL: Link
  6. Lawson T. What Is This “School” Called Neoclassical Economics? Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2013, vol. 37, iss. 5, pp. 947–983. URL: Link
  7. Davis J.B. The Turn in Economics: Neoclassical Dominance to Mainstream Pluralism? Journal of Institutional Economics, 2006, vol. 2, iss. 1, pp. 1–20. URL: Link
  8. Gee T. The World System is Not Neo-Liberal: The Emergence of Structural Mercantilism. Critique, 2009, vol. 37, iss. 2, pp. 253–259. URL: Link
  9. Smith A. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Ed. by S.M. Soares. MetaLibri Digital Library, 2007, 754 p.
  10. Warlouzet L. The EEC/EU as an Evolving Compromise between French Dirigism and German Ordoliberalism (1957–1995). Journal of Common Market Studies (JCMS), 2019, vol. 57, iss. 1, pp. 77–93. URL: Link
  11. Barth J. Reconstructing Mercantilism: Consensus and Conflict in British Imperial Economy in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries. The William and Mary Quarterly, 2016, vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 257–290. URL: Link
  12. Robinson J. Aspects of Development and Underdevelopment. The Economic Journal, 1980, vol. 90, iss. 359, pp. 623–625. URL: Link
  13. Uzunidis D., Laperche B. The New Mercantilism and the Crisis of the Global Knowledge Economy. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 2011, vol. 2, iss. 3, pp. 373–392. URL: Link
  14. Chijioke O., Aloysius A., Obi D. Mercantilism in Perspective: A Historic Review. Global Economy Journal, 2021, vol. 21, iss. 1, pp. 1–17. URL: Link
  15. Cwik P.F. The New Neo-Mercantilism: Currency Manipulation as a Form of Protectionism. Economic Affairs, 2011, vol. 31, iss. 3, pp. 7–11. URL: Link
  16. Reinert E.S., Reinert S.A. Mercantilism and Economic Development: Schumpeterian Dynamics, Institution Building, and International Benchmarking. Oikos, 2011, vol. 10, iss. 1, pp. 8–37. URL: Link
  17. Halsmayer V., Hoover K.D. Solow's Harrod: Transforming Macroeconomic Dynamics into a Model of Long-Run Growth. The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2016, vol. 23, iss. 4, pp. 561–596. URL: Link
  18. Lianos T. Domar's Growth Model and Marx's Reproduction Scheme. Journal of Macroeconomics, 1979, vol. 1, iss. 4, pp. 405–412. URL: Link90032-6
  19. Munguía R., Davalos J., Urzua S. Estimation of the Solow-Cobb-Douglas Economic Growth Model with a Kalman Filter: An Observability-Based Approach. Heliyon, 2019, vol. 5, iss. 6, e01959. URL: Link
  20. Ivanchenko I.S. [New neomercantilism as a challenge for a globalized economy]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2021, no. 9, pp. 132–148. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  21. Losev A.V. [Neomercantilism, neomodernism or neo-imperialism?]. Rossiya v global'noi politike = Russia in Global Affairs, 2017, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 34–50. URL: Link (In Russ.)

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-8768 (Online)
ISSN 2073-4484 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 15, Iss. 4
December 2022

Archive