Subject The article considers the dividend policy and factors influencing the dividend choice of Russian public companies. Objectives The aim of the research is to assess the effect of internal and external factors on the dividend policy of Russian public companies by means of economic and mathematical modeling. Methods We use a method of constructing a standard logistic regression model, which enables to identify internal and external factors impacting the dividend payments of Russian public companies. The resulting model is based on the data about companies from nine industries, i.e. mining, manufacturing sector, electricity and gas supplies, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transport, agriculture, real estate, and telecommunications. Results For internal factors, the study proves the supposed relationship between dividend payment and company size, profitability and specifics of industry. These results do not contradict the existing research. However, we did not find a confirmation of hypothesis about direct dependence between financial leverage and dividend payouts. For external factors, the supposed relationship between macroeconomic indicators and dividend choice are fully confirmed, except for the relationship between inflation rate and dividend payments. On the basis of the most important indicators, we created a model having 72.5 percent predictive power. Relevance The findings will allow company managers, shareholders, potential investors and other stakeholders to monitor company's current situation and predict the impact of external and internal factors on its dividend policy.
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