Finance and Credit

Identification of risk factors of bankruptcy of credit institutions and their modelling

Vol. 24, Iss. 1, JANUARY 2018

Received: 19 October 2017

Received in revised form: 4 December 2017

Accepted: 22 December 2017

Available online: 29 January 2018

Subject Heading: Banking

JEL Classification: G20, G21

Pages: 19–32

Klaas Ya.A. Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation

Klaas T.A. Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Importance This article deals with the issues of development of approaches to forecasting and early diagnosis of bankruptcy risk of financial institutions, in particular, banks.
Objectives The article aims to build an econometric model that determines the risk of bank default.
Methods The research uses the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction, abstraction and analogy. Also, the economic and statistical methods of grouping, correlation, and regression were applied.
Results The article determines an integral indicator of the bank default and identifies the current risk drivers of bankruptcy. With the help of regression analysis, these factors are built as an econometric model of bank default risk assessment.
Conclusions The article reveals that an ideal method of forecasting the bankruptcy has not yet been created. It is determined that the probability of default of a bank depends on the current conditions of economic development of the country.

Keywords: bank, sustainability, bankruptcy, correlation, regression


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