Finance and Credit

A multivariate analysis of the trends in the air transport market in modern conditions

Vol. 24, Iss. 3, MARCH 2018

Received: 11 December 2017

Received in revised form: 23 January 2018

Accepted: 12 February 2018

Available online: 29 March 2018

Subject Heading: BUSINESS VALUE

JEL Classification: С51, С53, L13, L93

Pages: 737—750

Kuz'mina L.V. Saint-Petersburg State University of Civil Aviation, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Subject The article investigates trends in the aviation industry of the Russian Federation.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to reveal key aspects of the industry and limitations that are currently in force in the Russian Federation, evaluate components of changes in the indicators characterizing the industry functioning to identify patterns and relationships with the realities of economic life.
Methods I employ statistical and regression analysis to unveil the components of the dynamics, both of systematic and random nature.
Results The paper presents estimates of seasonal fluctuations, trends in the industry indicators over time, proves a significant negative impact of crisis on changes in the industry, and quantifies them. The results of the analysis can be used for planning the current activities of airlines, working out measures of State support to the industry on the basis of obtained estimates of losses in the event of a crisis.
Conclusions Significant imbalances in the airfield system development and in the principles of industry organization cause a high dependence of the industry dynamics on market fluctuations.

Keywords: passenger transportation, aviation industry, regression analysis, economic dynamics


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