Home  Journals  Finance and Credit  10(778) - 2018 October

Forecasting the dynamics of the Russian cash flow

Vol. 24, Iss. 10, OCTOBER 2018

Article PDF Version

Received: 21 May 2018

Received in revised form: 18 June 2018

Accepted: 9 July 2018

Available online: 31 October 2018

Subject Heading: Financial system

JEL Classification: E47, E51, E63, G18, G32, O16

Pages: 2239–2254

https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.24.10.2239

Subject The article addresses the dynamics of the Russian cash flow.
Objectives The focus is on the analysis of prospects of the Russian cash flow created by the regulator, creditors and organizations.
Methods The study relies on the systems approach and uses the elements of graphical and factor analysis.
Results Forecasting the rates of increment of the Russian cash flow of the regulator unveils restrictions in the increase of money supply, which are associated with the structure of the economy. The projected rates of increment of the Russian cash flow of creditors show heavy losses for unprofitable credit institutions and low risks of positive and negative expectations during the periods of growth and decline in profits for organizations.
Conclusions Maintaining the free float of ruble enables the regulator to provide low rates of Russian cash flow increment. Adhering to the requirements of Basel III, the regulator limits the number of credit institutions thus strengthening the banking system and improving the stability of the Russian financial market. Rates of increment of the Russian cash flow of organizations are connected with continuous obsolescence of fixed assets and a decline in labor productivity. They demonstrate minor positive changes over the long term, high amplitude sensitivity to financial risks that it is caused by a low margin of financial safety.

Keywords: amplitude fluctuations, cash flow, regulator, growth rate, losses

References:

1. Glaz'ev S.Yu. [About the role of Russian Central Bank in the economic crisis: Problems and solutions]. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii = Economic Revival of Russia, 2014, no. 4, pp. 19–23. URL: Link (In Russ.)
2. Ivanter V.V. [Prospects for Recovery of Economic Growth In Russia]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk = Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2017, vol. 87, no. 1, pp. 15–28. (In Russ.)
3. Malinovskaya O.V., Skobeleva I.P., Brovkina A.V. [Functions of public and municipal finance and the update of financial instruments in modern conditions]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, 2018, vol. 11, iss. 1, pp. 77–86. (In Russ.) URL: Link
4. Krupkin A.V., Gorodnova N.V. [Factor analysis of the system for managing the Smart City concept projects]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2018, vol. 14, iss. 3, pp. 396–410. (In Russ.) URL: Link
5. Makoveev V.N. [Factor analysis and assessment of the development of innovation activity in manufacturing industry]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economy: Theory and Practice, 2016, vol. 14, iss. 12, pp. 143–153. URL: Link (In Russ.)
6. Brookins O.T. Factor Analysis and Gross National Product: A Comment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1970, vol. 84, no. 4, pp. 648–650. URL: Link
7. Papanek G.F. Factor Analysis and Growth: An Empirical Test. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1971, vol. 85, no. 3, pp. 508–512. URL: Link
8. Hiorns R.W. Modern Factor Analysis. The Computer Journal, 1968, vol. 11, iss. 2, p. 219. URL: Link
9. Stein J.C. Monetary Policy as Financial Stability Regulation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2012, vol. 127, iss. 1, pp. 57–95. URL: Link
10. Peacock M.S. The Ontology of Money. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2017, vol. 41, iss. 5, pp. 1471–1487. URL: Link
11. Bologna P., Segura A. Integrating Stress Tests within the Basel III Capital Framework: A Macroprudentially Coherent Approach. Journal of Financial Regulation, 2017, vol. 3, iss. 2, pp. 159–186. URL: Link
12. Brei M., Gambacorta L. Are Bank Capital Ratios Pro-Cyclical? New Evidence and Perspectives. Economic Policy, 2016, vol. 31, iss. 86, pp. 357–403. URL: Link
13. Repullo R., Suarez J. The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation. The Review of Financial Studies, 2013, vol. 26, iss. 2, pp. 452–490. URL: Link
14. Jones E., Zeitz A.O. The Limits of Globalizing Basel Banking Standards. Journal of Financial Regulation, 2017, vol. 3, iss. 1, pp. 89–124. URL: Link
15. Voronchenko T.V. [Forecasting and analysis of cash flows]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2010, no. 4, pp. 46–51. URL: Link (In Russ.)
16. Vaisblat B.I., Shilova E.N. [A probability model of cash flow characteristics forecasting]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, 2010, no. 15, pp. 2–6. URL: Link (In Russ.)
17. Donaldson G.R., Kamstra M. A New Dividend Forecasting Procedure that Rejects Bubbles in Asset Prices: The Case of 1929's Stock Crash. The Review of Financial Studies, 1996, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 333–383. URL: Link
18. Teoh S.H., Wong T. Why New Issues and High-Accrual Firms Underperform: The Role of Analysts' Credulity. The Review of Financial Studies, 2002, vol. 15, iss. 3, pp. 869–900. URL: Link

View all articles of issue

ISSN 2311-8709 (Online)
ISSN 2071-4688 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 30, Iss. 4 April 2024

Archive