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Prediction of bankruptcy of small and medium-sized business entities in Russia

Vol. 24, Iss. 11, NOVEMBER 2018

Received: 10 November 2017

Received in revised form: 11 January 2018

Accepted: 29 August 2018

Available online: 29 November 2018

Subject Heading: THEORY OF FINANCE

JEL Classification: C35, D24

Pages: 2537–2552

Fedorova E.A. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation

Musienko S.O. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation

Fedorov F.Yu. OOO RedSys, Moscow, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Subject This article analyzes the regulatory and legal framework, defining criteria of recognition of the enterprise bankrupt and compares these criteria with forecasting of bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Objectives The article aims to determine the regulatory values of the criteria used in the legislative acts of the Russian Federation, as well as the most frequently used ones in foreign studies when predicting the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Methods For the study, we used the following methods of classification: the Random Decision Forests method, Classification And Regression Tree (CART) analysis technique, Gradient Tree Boosting technique, and the Bagging ensemble meta-algorithm.
Results The article shows that the current criteria specified in the legislative acts as criteria for determining bankruptcy are not universal and require clarification for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Conclusions and Relevance Legislative criteria to define bankruptcy require refinement taking into account the size of an enterprise. The results of the study can be used by small and medium-sized enterprises to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy and make timely management decisions, and the legislative powers to introduce amendments to legislation acts.

Keywords: bankruptcy, SME, business smashup criteria


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