Finance and Credit

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The analysis of Russia's credit market

Vol. 25, Iss. 7, JULY 2019

Received: 21 March 2019

Received in revised form: 17 June 2019

Accepted: 1 July 2019

Available online: 1 August 2019

Subject Heading: Banking

JEL Classification: E42, E50, E51, E59, G21, H81

Pages: 1484–1500

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Subject The article discusses and analyzes the current situation in the credit market of the Russian Federation.
Objectives The study evaluates the current situation in the Russian credit market and determines its dynamics.
Methods The study is based on the systems approach, involving statistical, comparative and logic methods of analysis. We also implement the graphic method for interpreting changes.
Results The article justifies the importance of evaluating the current situation and trends in the development of the Russian credit market. We formulate the hypothesis assuming that the current situation and trends in the Russian credit market correlate with a decrease in owners of available financial resources and an increase in the number of borrowers, which result in the credit risk and growth in interest rates on loans. The article highlights negative effects of the Central Bank’s participation in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, intensifying the Western expansion in lending. The Russian credit market was evaluated through quarterly statistics of the Bank for International Settlements, Central Bank and Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, referring to over a dozen of aggregate metrics, i.e. loans to non-financial corporations, households and governments, current-assets-to-current-liabilities ratio and credit gap, loans to GDP ratio, etc. Having performed the comprehensive analysis of the assessed trends in the Russian credit market, we identified a growth in credit risks, predominance of lending to households and non-profit organizations, the threshold of the loan-based property market efficiency, etc.
Conclusions and Relevance We verified the initial hypothesis on the current situation and trends in the development of the Russian credit market. The article highlights its specifics, i.e. lending asymmetry, a drop in the real purchasing power, decreased rates of growth in monetary expenses, etc. The findings help choose aspects to focus on in improving credit relations and KPI of credit institutions.

Keywords: volatility, dynamics, credit, liquidity, market, growth rates


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