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Finance and Credit
 

Modeling the third-tier stock prices based on the information environment dynamics

Vol. 30, Iss. 5, MAY 2024

Received: 30 November 2023

Received in revised form: 11 January 2024

Accepted: 25 January 2024

Available online: 30 May 2024

Subject Heading: Securities market

JEL Classification: C02, C6

Pages: 966–987

https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.30.5.966

Andrei A. ZAITSEV Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
zajtsev.aa@spbstu.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4372-4207

Sergei I. SHANYGIN Saint-Petersburg State University (SPbSU), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
s.shanygin@spbu.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2131-0951

Ol'ga V. ZABOROVSKAYA State Institute of Economics, Finance, Law, and Technology (SIEFLT), Gatchina, Leningrad Oblast, Russian Federation
ozabor@mail.ru

ORCID id: not available

Evgenii A. KONNIKOV Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
konnikov.evgeniy@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4685-8569

Viktor I. SOROKIN Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
vitya.soroka.02@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0009-0007-5061-9636

Subject. The article examines the influence of the tonality of news on the tire 3 stock quotes.
Objectives. The purpose is to reflect the specifics of the influence of news sentiment on the prices of third-tier shares traded on the Moscow Exchange.
Methods. We chose Telegram messenger as a source of news. Using the Python programming language, we wrote scripts. On their basis, we obtained stock quotes.
Results. We used binarization of the difference in closing and opening prices. We also used tokenization to divide one text into separate words, lemmatization to bring a word into its initial form, taking into account contextual information, clustering of the result obtained, and selection of the most prominent topics. After that, we built classification models based on the methods of the naive Bayesian classifier, tree ensemble, and random forest techniques.
Conclusions. We combined the above-mentioned models with the corresponding methods, and presented conclusions on the findings. The paper mentions the subsequent stages to study the impact of news on stock quotes.

Keywords: Telegram, stock, stock market, classification

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