Importance Due to increased interconnection of the economic development of developed countries and the determining impact of the USA on the condition of global financial and commodity markets, I underline the relevance of research activities dealing with the analysis of development prospects of the USA economy. Objectives The article includes a macroeconomic analysis of the US economy development in the middle-term perspective. I have researched the main factors, which guide the US Federal Reserve System (the Fed) activities in working out its crisis recovery policy. The paper considers possible directions of the US economy innovation development. Special attention is paid to the measures aimed at stimulating the development of manufacturing industry, which is characterized by its declining role in the GDP, and which has not yet fully recovered from the 2008-2009 crises. Methods To analyze the prospects for the USA economy development, I have used the aggregated econometric middle-term macroeconomic model, which I have developed on the basis of the USA statistics data and which includes the following blocks: GDP growth rate assessment; evaluation of the unemployment level; inflation assessment. The analysis shows that despite the measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve System on rescuing the financial system and practically a zero refinancing rate, there is no increase in investment volumes required to ensure acceptable post-crisis economic growth rate. The program of repurchasing long-term bonds that has been undertaken by the Federal Reserve System since September 2012 has ensured a slight support to the economic growth and, most importantly, a reduction in unemployment rate. However, it has resulted in a sharp increase in the money supply, which entailed active speculation in the stock markets. As a consequence, the dynamics of stock indices has become explosive. I consider 3 scenarios of the US economy development: optimistic, medium, which bases on extrapolation of post-recession (current) trends, and pessimistic. Results The study bases on the aggregated monetary model and enables to conclude that the United States economy in the middle-term perspective is likely to have a relatively slow pace of economic growth. Conclusions and Relevance I underline an urgent need for involving the United States in major international projects, which will contribute to sustainable growth of not only American, but also the global economy, and will help easing of international tension.
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