National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Forecasting SYN flood DDoS attacks on web resources

Vol. 14, Iss. 11, NOVEMBER 2018

Received: 24 July 2018

Received in revised form: 16 August 2018

Accepted: 31 August 2018

Available online: 16 November 2018

Subject Heading: THREATS AND SECURITY

JEL Classification: C63, М15

Pages: 2162–2174

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.14.11.2162

Barmina S.S. Kazan National Research Technical University named after A.N. Tupolev – KAI (KNRTU-KAI), Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation
molibdenbora@yandex.ru

ORCID id: not available

Tadzhibaeva F.M. Kazan National Research Technical University named after A.N. Tupolev – KAI (KNRTU-KAI), Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation
frida.t.1465@gmail.com

ORCID id: not available

Subject Denial-of-service attacks are performed by hackers targeting the computer system. It is a basic scheme for cyberattacks undermining a service, which leaves no legally substantive evidence. DDoS attacks are effectuated through several computers.
Objectives The research is to forecast and examine the most common type of DDoS attacks lasting less than four hours and SYN flood attacks being on Top 10 of the internet attacks and causing serious breakdowns of web resources.
Methods The research is based on a correlation analysis of time series of SYN flood and DDoS attacks of four hours and less, cross-correlation of time series. We forecast SYN flood attacks for the coming quarters of 2018 and 2019 by the exponential smoothing method.
Results SYN floods are found to be of seasonal nature. DDoS attacks lasting less than four hours were also seasonal in Q1 of a calendar year, thereby making us expect more attacks in Q1 2019.
Conclusions and Relevance We traced a correlation between SYN flood attacks and DDoS attacks lasting less than four hours and showed their seasonality. The article provides the forecast of SYN flood attacks for the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019. The data allows for respective preparatory actions in order to protect web resources from SYN flood attacks.

Keywords: DDoS attack, SYN flood, forecasting, web resource, information protection

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