National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Abstracting and Indexing

РИНЦ
Referativny Zhurnal VINITI RAS
Worldcat
LCCN Permalink
Google Scholar

Online available

EBSCOhost
Eastview
Elibrary
Biblioclub

Archiving

Cyberleninka (12 month OA embargo)

A priori estimate and reduction of the risk of demographic challenge to the national security of Russia. Part One. A systems analysis and modeling of the demographic challenge

Vol. 15, Iss. 4, APRIL 2019

Received: 7 February 2019

Received in revised form: 25 February 2019

Accepted: 14 March 2019

Available online: 15 April 2019

Subject Heading: Priorities of Russia

JEL Classification: C13, C31, K30, Z28

Pages: 648–665

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.15.4.648

Belov P.G. Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University) (MAI), Moscow, Russian Federation
safsec@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0239-5299

Subject This article main content includes the results of a problem-oriented analysis of the empirical data changes in the Russian population for the last twenty seven years, regarded as a challenge to the national security, and a graph-analytic model of the process of its onset and destructive manifestation.
Objectives The article illustrates an extreme threat to the current demographic situation and the possibility of its system research for a priori assessment of both the corresponding risk and the effects of all the factors and negative consequences taken into account.
Methods The study involves a systems analysis, deductive and axiomatic, and inductive and expert methods, and the logical and linguistic and mathematical modeling methods.
Results The article shows the boundedness of humanitarian approach to the study of dangerous social processes and the possibility of supplementing it with scientific methods. It also shows the constructiveness of more strict representation of the factors and parameters taken into account through the functions of linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers. The article presents a developed original model of emergence and negative development of the demographic challenge to the national security.
Conclusions The article concludes about the criticality of the current demographic situation in Russia, which is fraught to become history after three or four generations, but also about the principle possibility to remove the threat by replacing individual eclectic measures.

Keywords: challenges, modeling, risk, damage

References:

  1. Belov P.G. [Regulatory framework for Russia's national security. Evaluation of the current situation and modernization priorities. Parts One and Two]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2018, vol. 14, iss. 7, pp. 1184–1198. (In Russ.) URL: Link and 2018, vol. 14, iss. 8, pp. 1382–1400. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  2. Boitsov S.A., Samorodskaya I.V. [Factors Influencing Mortality]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk = Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2016, vol. 86, no. 12, pp. 1089–1097. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  3. Golubtsov V.V., Dubovskii S.V., Yakovets T.Yu. Mirovye i rossiiskie problemy v demografii. V kn.: Sistemnye issledovaniya. Metodologicheskie problemy: ezhegodnik [The world and Russian problems in demography. In: Systems research. Methodological issues: A yearbook]. Moscow, URSS Publ., 2018, pp. 44–85.
  4. Podlazov A.V. [Theory of Global Demographical Process]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk = Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2017, vol. 87, no. 6, pp. 520–531. (In Russ.)
  5. Khalturina D.A., Korotaev A.V. “Russkii krest”: faktory, mekhanizmy i puti preodoleniya demograficheskogo krizisa v Rossii [Russian Cross: Factors, mechanisms and ways to overcome the demographic crisis in Russia]. Moscow, KomKniga Publ., URSS Publ., 2006, pp. 27–53.
  6. Levashov V.K., Afanas'ev V.A., Novozhenina O.P., Shushpanova I.S. Krizis i riski ustoichivogo razvitiya rossiiskogo obshchestva [Crisis and the risks of sustainable development of the Russian society]. Moscow, Institute of Social and Political Studies of RAS Publ., 2014, 48 p. URL: Link
  7. Levashov V.K., Afanas'ev V.A., Novozhenina O.P., Shushpanova I.S. Kak zhivesh' Rossiya? [How are you getting on, Russia?]. Moscow, Institute of Social and Political Studies of RAS Publ., 2016, 57 p. URL: Link
  8. Gvardeitsev M.I., Kuznetsov P.G., Rozenberg V.Ya. Matematicheskoe obespechenie upravleniya. Mery razvitiya obshchestva [Mathematical support of management. Social development measures]. Moscow, Radio i svyaz' Publ., 1996, 246 p.
  9. Ostretsov I.N. Vvedenie v filosofiyu nenasil'stvennogo razvitiya [Introduction to the philosophy of nonviolent development]. Rostov-on-Don, Kompleks Publ., 2002, 240 p.
  10. Zadeh L.A. Ponyatie lingvisticheskoi peremennoi i ego primenenie k prinyatiyu reshenii [The Concept of a Linguistic Variable and Its Application to Approximate Reasoning]. Moscow, Mir Publ., 1976, pp. 76–82.
  11. Dubois D., Prade H. Teoriya vozmozhnostei. Prilozheniya predstavleniyu znanii v informatike [Possibility Theory: An Approach to Computerized Processing of Uncertainty]. Moscow, Radio i svyaz' Publ., 1990, 288 p.
  12. Bublik N.G., Evstigneev V.E., Novosel'tsev V.I. et al. Logiko-lingvisticheskie modeli v voennykh sistemnykh issledovaniyakh [Logical and linguistic models in military system research]. Moscow, Voenizdat Publ., 1988, 232 p.
  13. Yakunin V.I., Sulakshin S.S., Bagdasaryan V.E. et al. Gosudarstvennaya politika vyvoda Rossii iz demograficheskogo krizisa: monografiya [State policy of Russia's demographic crisis turnaround: a monograph]. Moscow, Nauchnyi ekspert Publ., 2007, 888 p.

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-875X (Online)
ISSN 2073-2872 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 15, Iss. 4
April 2019

Archive