National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Abstracting and Indexing

РИНЦ
Referativny Zhurnal VINITI RAS
Worldcat
LCCN Permalink
Google Scholar

Online available

EBSCOhost
Eastview
Elibrary
Biblioclub

Archiving

Cyberleninka (12 month OA embargo)

A priori estimate and reduction of the risk of demographic challenge to the national security of Russia. Part Two. Forecast and mitigation of the demographic risk through modeling

Vol. 15, Iss. 5, MAY 2019

Received: 7 February 2019

Received in revised form: 25 February 2019

Accepted: 14 March 2019

Available online: 16 May 2019

Subject Heading: Priorities of Russia

JEL Classification: C13, C31, K30, Z28

Pages: 817–834

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.15.5.817

Belov P.G. Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University) (MAI), Moscow, Russian Federation
safsec@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2584-8185

Subject The research represents the qualitative and quantitative analysis of my models of origination and detrimental effect of a demographic challenge to the national security of Russia. The analysis intends to forecast and reduce the respective risk.
Objectives The research illustrates the constructive nature of a cross-disciplinary approach to the prior assessment of the risk and optimization of decisions for its mitigation by addressing the most significant assumptions on its origination and adverse effects identified through modeling.
Methods The research is based on the automated systems analysis (in terms of quality and quantity) of original logic-probability and mathematical models in order to predict the risk and ranks of factors, optimize strategies and recommendations for reducing the risk through methods of the decision theory.
Results The research shows it is reasonable and constructive to implement cross-disciplinary methods for studying dangerous social processes. The article proves the possibility of expressing the qualities and parameters through membership functions of linguistic variables and fuzzy sets. I assessed the demographic risk and the impact of certain factors, proposed strategies for reducing the risk and optimizing the input and methods for processing it.
Conclusions and Relevance To ensure its national protection and security, Russia should opt for a reasonable and sound consistent strategy implying the proposed and other scientific and technological recommendations.

Keywords: challenge, modeling, risk, damage

References:

  1. Belov P.G. [A Priori Estimate and Reduction of the Risk of Demographic Challenge to the National Security of Russia. Part One. A Systems Analysis and Modeling of the Demographic Challenge]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2019, vol. 15, iss. 4, pp. 648–665. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  2. Henley E.J., Kumamoto H. Nadezhnost' tekhnicheskikh sistem i otsenka riska [Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment]. Moscow, Mashinostroenie Publ., 1984, 528 p.
  3. Ershov Yu.L., Palyutin E.A. Matematicheskaya logika [Mathematical logic]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1987, 336 p.
  4. Gvardeitsev M.I., Kuznetsov P.G., Rozenberg V.Ya. Matematicheskoe obespechenie upravleniya. Mery razvitiya obshchestva [The mathematical framework for management. Measures for social development]. Moscow, Radio i svyaz' Publ., 1996, 246 p.
  5. Yakunin V.I., Sulakshin S.S., Bagdasaryan V.E. et al. Gosudarstvennaya politika vyvoda Rossii iz demograficheskogo krizisa: monografiya [The State policy for overcoming the demographic crisis in Russia: a monograph]. Moscow, Nauchnyi ekspert Publ., 2007, 888 p.
  6. Il'enkov E.V. Dialektika abstraktnogo i konkretnogo v nauchno-teoreticheskom myshlenii [Dialectics of the abstract and concrete in scientific and theoretical reasoning]. Moscow, ROSSPEN Publ., 1997, 468 p.
  7. Belov P.G. Natsional'naya bezopasnost'. Teoriya, metodologiya, praktika [National security. Theory, methodology, practice]. St. Petersburg, Strategiya budushchego Publ., 2015, 486 p.
  8. Beklemishev L.D. [Gödel incompleteness theorems and the limits of their applicability. I]. Uspekhi matematicheskikh nauk = Russian Mathematical Surveys, 2010, vol. 65, iss. 5, pp. 61–106. (In Russ.)
  9. Lauridsen K., Kozine I., Markert F. Assessment of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments. The ASSURANCE project. Roskilde, Denmark, Risø National Laboratory, 2002, 51 p. URL: Link (In Russ.)

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-875X (Online)
ISSN 2073-2872 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 15, Iss. 7
July 2019

Archive