National Interests: Priorities and Security

Abstracting and Indexing

Referativny Zhurnal VINITI RAS
LCCN Permalink
Google Scholar

Online available



Cyberleninka (12 month OA embargo)

Economics of the energy security and methodological approaches to its evaluation

Vol. 15, Iss. 6, JUNE 2019

Received: 20 February 2019

Received in revised form: 14 March 2019

Accepted: 2 April 2019

Available online: 17 June 2019

Subject Heading: ENERGY SECURITY

JEL Classification: Q43, Q47

Pages: 1086–1096

Kononov Yu.D. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Kononov D.Yu. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Subject Strategic threats to the energy security imply two crucial economic aspects, i.e. the risk of unstable energy prices and their growth and risk of long-standing energy shortage, underdeveloped production capacity due to limited or retarded investment. It is one of the most difficult tasks to measure the possible loss that a delay in the power plant launch or a palpable increase in energy prices may cause for the social security and economy. There are no generally accepted methods to quantify the significance of the above threats and determine their probability. However, it is difficult to assess the thresholds of indicators without such measurement.
Objectives The study analyzes the above threats and possible methodological approaches to their measurement.
Methods Research is based on a systems analysis of a correlation between the power engineering sector and economy as a whole, involving optimization and stochastic models.
Results We suggest using new energy security metrics and approaches to evaluating the strategic threat of production capacity shortage in power engineering. We prove the reasonableness of stochastic models to evaluate and compare investment risks of power supply options.
Conclusions and Relevance When assessing metrics of investment risks and energy price trends, it is important to consider their correlation. Thresholds of such indicators depend on power engineering development scenarios and the nature of forecast uncertainty. They should be assessed step by step through the multi-tiered system of optimization and stochastic models.

Keywords: energy security, economic risks, indicators


  1. Ang B.W., Choong W.L., Ng T.S. Energy Security: Definitions, Dimensions and Indexes. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015, vol. 42, pp. 1077–1093. URL: Link
  2. Mansson A., Johansson B., Nilsson L.J. Assessing Energy Security: An Overview of Commonly Used Methodologies. Energy, 2014, vol. 73, pp. 1–14. URL: Link
  3. Sovacool B.K., Mukherjee I. Conceptualizing and Measuring Energy Security: А Synthesized Approach. Energy, 2011, vol. 36, iss. 8, pp. 5343–5355. URL: Link
  4. Blum H., Legey L.F.L. The Challenging Economics of Energy Security: Ensuring Energy Benefits in Support to Sustainable Development. Energy Economics, 2012, vol. 34, iss. 6, pp. 1982–1989. URL: Link
  5. Fang D., Shi S., Yu O. Evaluation of Sustainable Energy Security and an Empirical Analysis of China. Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, iss. 5, pp. 1–23.
  6. Augutis J. et al. Integrated Energy Security Assessment. Energy, 2017, vol. 138, pp. 890–901. URL: Link
  7. Senderov S.M., Pyatkova N.I., Rabchuk V.I. et al. Metodika monitoringa sostoyaniya obespecheniya energeticheskoi bezopasnosti v Rossii na regional'nom urovne [The technique for energy security monitoring in Russia at the regional level]. Irkutsk, Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Publ., 2014, 146 p.
  8. Senderov S.M., Pyatkova N.I. [The application of a two-tiered research technique for energy security purposes]. Izvestiya RAN. Energetika = Proceedings of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Power Engineering, 2000, no. 6, pp. 31–39. (In Russ.)
  9. Gal'perova E.V., Kononov Yu.D., Kononov D.Yu. et al. Metody i modeli prognoznykh issledovanii vzaimosvyazei energetiki i ekonomiki [Methods and models of forecasting researches on the relationship of energy and economy]. Novosibirsk, Nauka Publ., 2009, 178 p.
  10. Kononov Yu.D., Tyrtyshnyi V.N., Kononov D.Yu. [The use of stochastic modeling in the selection of power supply options for regions taking into account investment risks]. Informatsionnye i matematicheskie tekhnologii v nauke i upravlenii = Information and Mathematical Technologies in Science and Management, 2018, no. 2, pp. 80–87. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  11. Ermakov S.M. Metod Monte-Karlo i smezhnye voprosy [Monte Carlo methods and related questions]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1975, 472 p.
  12. Pereira E. Methodology of Risk Analysis by Monte Carlo Method Applied to Power Generation with Renewable Energy. Renewable Energy, 2014, vol. 69, pp. 347–355. URL: Link
  13. Sistemnye issledovaniya v energetike: metodologiya i rezul'taty [System research in power engineering: The methodology and results]. Moscow, Institute of Energy Research RAS Publ., 2018, 309 p.
  14. Nepomnyashchii V.A. [Damage assessment from violation of power supply to consumers]. Akademiya energetiki = Academy of Energy, 2012, no. 5, pp. 12–17. (In Russ.)
  15. Loktionov V.I. [Russia heading towards sustainable power engineering]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2018, vol. 14, iss. 4, pp. 725–740. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  16. Khatib H. Economic Evaluation of Projects in Electric Supply Industry. London, IEE Press, 2003, 216 p.

View all articles of issue


ISSN 2311-875X (Online)
ISSN 2073-2872 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 15, Iss. 7
July 2019