Kononov Yu.D.Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation email@example.com ORCID id: not available
Kononov D.Yu.Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation firstname.lastname@example.org ORCID id: not available
Subject Strategic threats to the energy security imply two crucial economic aspects, i.e. the risk of unstable energy prices and their growth and risk of long-standing energy shortage, underdeveloped production capacity due to limited or retarded investment. It is one of the most difficult tasks to measure the possible loss that a delay in the power plant launch or a palpable increase in energy prices may cause for the social security and economy. There are no generally accepted methods to quantify the significance of the above threats and determine their probability. However, it is difficult to assess the thresholds of indicators without such measurement. Objectives The study analyzes the above threats and possible methodological approaches to their measurement. Methods Research is based on a systems analysis of a correlation between the power engineering sector and economy as a whole, involving optimization and stochastic models. Results We suggest using new energy security metrics and approaches to evaluating the strategic threat of production capacity shortage in power engineering. We prove the reasonableness of stochastic models to evaluate and compare investment risks of power supply options. Conclusions and Relevance When assessing metrics of investment risks and energy price trends, it is important to consider their correlation. Thresholds of such indicators depend on power engineering development scenarios and the nature of forecast uncertainty. They should be assessed step by step through the multi-tiered system of optimization and stochastic models.
Keywords: energy security, economic risks, indicators
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