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Analyzing and forecasting innovative advantages of emerging and advanced economies: The USA, Germany, China, and Russia

Vol. 15, Iss. 8, AUGUST 2019

Received: 16 January 2019

Received in revised form: 30 January 2019

Accepted: 28 February 2019

Available online: 15 August 2019


JEL Classification: F20, F29, O30, O33, O39

Pages: 1474–1494

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Subject The article focuses on the innovation advantages of advanced and emerging economies and investigates those of the USA, Germany, China and Russia.
Objectives The study forecasts the global technological balance with respect to advanced and emerging economies.
Methods The study is based on the systems approach, methods of statistical, cluster, neural and non-parametric analysis.
Results We evaluate the relevance of innovative advantages to advanced and emerging economies, changes in the future tendency of Global Innovation Index, Gross Expenditures on Research and Development. We assessed the GII profile of the USA, Germany, China and Russia. The article presents the OLS forecast of GII trends. The USA was found to continue borrowing high capabilities of China and Germany until 2021, keeping high values of GII. Ranking aggregate values of GII 2018, we emphasize the stability of the post-industrial innovative development of the USA, aggressive innovative growth in the Chinese industry, Germany's focus on fundamental education, high innovative capabilities of Russia. Relying on the outcome of the analysis, forecast and ranked aggregate data on innovative advantages of the USA, Germany, China and Russia, we built a micro- and macromap of GII for a reasonable interaction.
Conclusions and Relevance Global technological balance implies the sustainable post-industrial innovative development of the USA, aggressive innovative growth of the Chinese industry, fundamental education in Germany, high innovative capabilities of Russia. The efficiency of Russia's interaction with advanced and emerging economies will determine whether it is able to use high innovative capabilities in the coming three years. The findings should be used to adjust the international innovative cooperation with advanced and emerging economies.

Keywords: Global Innovation Index, ranking, innovation aggregate, GII, efficiency ratio


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