National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Abstracting and Indexing

РИНЦ
Referativny Zhurnal VINITI RAS
Worldcat
LCCN Permalink
Google Scholar

Online available

EBSCOhost
Eastview
Elibrary
Biblioclub

Archiving

Cyberleninka (12 month OA embargo)

Analyzing and forecasting innovative advantages of emerging and advanced economies: The USA, Germany, China, and Russia

Vol. 15, Iss. 8, AUGUST 2019

Received: 16 January 2019

Received in revised form: 30 January 2019

Accepted: 28 February 2019

Available online: 15 August 2019

Subject Heading: INNOVATION AND INVESTMENT

JEL Classification: F20, F29, O30, O33, O39

Pages: 1474–1494

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.15.8.1474

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation
v2v3s4@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6198-3157

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation
alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9852-9804

Subject The article focuses on the innovation advantages of advanced and emerging economies and investigates those of the USA, Germany, China and Russia.
Objectives The study forecasts the global technological balance with respect to advanced and emerging economies.
Methods The study is based on the systems approach, methods of statistical, cluster, neural and non-parametric analysis.
Results We evaluate the relevance of innovative advantages to advanced and emerging economies, changes in the future tendency of Global Innovation Index, Gross Expenditures on Research and Development. We assessed the GII profile of the USA, Germany, China and Russia. The article presents the OLS forecast of GII trends. The USA was found to continue borrowing high capabilities of China and Germany until 2021, keeping high values of GII. Ranking aggregate values of GII 2018, we emphasize the stability of the post-industrial innovative development of the USA, aggressive innovative growth in the Chinese industry, Germany's focus on fundamental education, high innovative capabilities of Russia. Relying on the outcome of the analysis, forecast and ranked aggregate data on innovative advantages of the USA, Germany, China and Russia, we built a micro- and macromap of GII for a reasonable interaction.
Conclusions and Relevance Global technological balance implies the sustainable post-industrial innovative development of the USA, aggressive innovative growth of the Chinese industry, fundamental education in Germany, high innovative capabilities of Russia. The efficiency of Russia's interaction with advanced and emerging economies will determine whether it is able to use high innovative capabilities in the coming three years. The findings should be used to adjust the international innovative cooperation with advanced and emerging economies.

Keywords: Global Innovation Index, ranking, innovation aggregate, GII, efficiency ratio

References:

  1. Aganbegyan A.G. [Renewal of socio-economic growth: Problems and prospects]. Srednerusskii vestnik obshchestvennykh nauk = Central Russian Bulletin of Social Sciences, 2017, vol. 12, iss. 3, pp. 19–41. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  2. Ivanter V.V. [Modernization needs and speed of the economic growth]. Innovatsii = Innovations, 2011, no. 8, pp. 6–7. (In Russ.)
  3. Ivanter V.V., Komkov N.I. [State and prospects of innovative development of the Russian economy]. MIR (Modernizatsiya. Innovatsii. Razvitie) = MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research), 2017, vol. 8, no. 4s, pp. 618–628. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  4. Glaz'ev S.Yu., Nizhegorodtsev R.M., Kupryashin G.L. et al. [State-level national economic development management (A summary of the round table conducted on 26.10.2016)]. Gosudarstvennoe upravlenie. Elektronnyi vestnik, 2017, no. 60, pp. 6–33. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  5. Glaz'ev S.Yu., Dement'ev V.E., Efimova M.R. et al. [The contemporary global crisis and long-term patterns of economic development]. Vestnik Universiteta (Gosudarstvennyi universitet upravleniya), 2010, no. 24, pp. 192–204. (In Russ.)
  6. Polterovich V.M. [Tolerance, cooperation, and economic growth]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2017, no. 11, pp. 33–49. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  7. Valentei S.D., Bakhtizin A.R., Kol'chugina A.V. [The readiness of regional economies to modernization]. Federalizm = Federalism, 2018, no. 3, pp. 143–156. (In Russ.)
  8. Dynkin A.A. Russia's Economy: Domestic Discussions and International Positioning. Izvestiya Ural'skogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Journal of the Ural State University of Economics, 2017, no. 5, pp. 34–43. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  9. Crespo N.F., Crespo C.F. Global Innovation Index: Moving Beyond the Absolute Value of Ranking with a Fuzzy-Set Analysis. Journal of Business Research, 2016, vol. 69, iss. 11, pp. 5265–5271. URL: Link
  10. Juma C. Innovation in Emerging Markets. International Affairs, 2017, vol. 93, iss. 3, pp. 733–734. URL: Link
  11. Summers T. Forging China's Military Might: A New Framework for Assessing Innovation. Edited by Tai Ming Cheung. International Affairs, 2015, vol. 91, iss. 3, pp. 671–672. URL: Link
  12. Brahmbhatt M., Hu A. Ideas and Innovation in East Asia. The World Bank Research Observer, 2010, vol. 25, iss. 2, pp. 177–207. URL: Link
  13. Jorgenson D.W. Innovation and Productivity Growth. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2011, vol. 93, iss. 2, pp. 276–296. URL: Link
  14. Qiu Ja. China's Funding System and Research Innovation. National Science Review, 2014, vol. 1, iss. 1, pp. 161–163. URL: Link
  15. Grachev S.A., Donichev O.A., Malkova T.B. [Human capital as a resource of region's innovative development]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2016, vol. 15, iss. 5, pp. 64–77. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  16. Yashin S.N., Korobova Yu.S. [Diagnostics of the economic condition of industrial enterprises operating in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast based on innovative development indices]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2016, vol. 15, iss. 11, pp. 58–71. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  17. Shashkina E.O. [Measuring the level of digitization of the national financial market: A banking sector case study]. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit, 2018, vol. 24, iss. 10, pp. 2316–2330. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  18. Spirina S.G. [Financial security of priority development economic systems]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2016, vol. 12, iss. 8, pp. 55–68. URL: Link (In Russ.)

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-875X (Online)
ISSN 2073-2872 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 15, Iss. 9
September 2019

Archive