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Estimating the agricultural irrigated land use by federal district of the Russian Federation

Vol. 15, Iss. 9, SEPTEMBER 2019

Received: 23 July 2019

Received in revised form: 10 August 2019

Accepted: 26 August 2019

Available online: 16 September 2019

Subject Heading: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY

JEL Classification: Q15, Q18, Q25, R12, R58

Pages: 1617–1632

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.15.9.1617

Ugryumova A.A. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics (PRUE), Moscow, Russian Federation
feminaa@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4549-0117

Pautova L.E. All-Russian Scientific and Research Institute for Irrigation Systems and Agriculture Raduga, Kolomna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation
cosidanie35@yandex.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8879-0585

Zamakhovskii M.P. All-Russian Scientific and Research Institute for Irrigation Systems and Agriculture Raduga, Kolomna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation
zamakhovskii@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1062-6552

Subject The article proves the growing importance of predictive extrapolation when formulating a long-term policy of large spatial and sectoral subjects, with the Russian agriculture being one of them.
Objectives We trace crucial trends and prospects of using agricultural irrigated lands by federal district of the Russian Federation.
Methods The research presents the SWOT analysis, applies the systematization method and statistical methods of trend forecast.
Results We constructed trend models of 2015–2017 series of percentages that reclamation land metrics account for and the use of agricultural irrigated land in Russia. Subsequently, we conducted the point prediction and interval forecast of the percentages for 2018.
Conclusions and Relevance We found that some federal districts of Russia undertake measures to reduce idle agricultural irrigated land, inter alia, due to soil salinization and genesis of bog soils, non-irrigated land, inter alia, due to insufficient water supply, deficient irrigation network, unsatisfactory reclamation and increase the area of good agricultural land in terms of reclamation. The findings can underlie federal and regional development programs.

Keywords: agricultural irrigated land, trend model, interval forecasts, reclamation, socio-economic development

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