Lebedev K.K.State Academic University for the Humanities, Moscow, Russian Federation kklebedev@yandex.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject Over half a million people has been killed by road accidents for the recent 20 years in Russia. The State tries to do its best to reduce the dead toll of road accidents. The mortality rates have halved, thereby proving the high efficiency of the efforts. However, the State misses the total information on the subject. The existing techniques for assessing demographic and economic losses of road accidents overlook an important aspect. In addition to women of reproductive age, we lose their demographic potential which is measured with birth rates. The article focuses on demographic losses and economic damage resulting from the lost demographic potential of women who die in road accidents. Objectives The research aims to build a model for assessing economic and demographic capabilities, which will allow to calculate demographic losses and economic damage. If such a model proves to be efficient, it will be recommended to be integrated into the basic framework of the federal assessment techniques used by the Russian Ministry of Transport. Results The economic and demographic assessment model will help make computations using retrospective data and make scenario-based forecasts of possible damage for the economy and demography. Conclusions and Relevance The research shows that demographic losses and economic damage of road accidents in Russia are so high that the issue should be treated at the level of national security.
Keywords: demography, economic damage, road accident, national security
References:
Vishnevskii A., Fattakhov T. [Road traffic accidents and death toll in Russia]. Demoskop Weekly = Demoscope Weekly, 2012, no. 527–528. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Kapelyushnikov R.I. Skol'ko stoit chelovecheskii kapital v Rossii? [Russia’s human capital: What is its value?]. Preprint WP3/2012/06, WP3 Series Labor Market Problem. Moscow, HSE Publ., 2012, 76 p. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Prokhorov B.B., Shmakov D.I. [Causes of people’s death in peacetime and economic assessment of the value of losses]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Problems of Forecasting, 2013, no. 4, pp. 139–147. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Nifantova R.V., Shipitsina S.E. [Modern methods of human life evaluation]. Ekonomika regiona = Economyof Region, 2012, no. 3, pp. 289–294. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Bykov A.A. [On the methodology for economic assessment of an ordinary person's life]. Problemy analiza riska = Issues of Risk Analysis, 2007, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 178–191. (In Russ.)
Zhubets A.N., Sazanakova A.S. [The way the Russians value the cost of living]. Finansy = Finance, 2014, no. 4, pp. 62–63. (In Russ.)
Kuklin A.A., Shipitsina S.E., Nifantitova R.V. Ekonomicheskaya otsenka zhizni cheloveka [Economic assessment of human life]. Yekaterinburg, Institute of Economics of URO RAS Publ., 2012, 42 p.
Morev M.V., Lyubov E.B. [Social and economic damage due to population's mortality from suicides]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial'nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz = Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2011, no. 6, pp. 119–130. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Blinova T.V., Bylina S.S. [Economic loss from premature rural mortality]. Finansovyi menedzment = Financial Management, 2013, no. 10, pp. 44–48. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Morev M.V., Korolenko A.V. [Assessment of demographic and socio-economic losses due to premature mortality in the populations of Russia and Vologda Oblast]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Problems of Forecasting, 2018, no. 2, pp. 110–123. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Khegai Yu.A. [Road traffic safety as an important part of the socio-economic development of the country]. Teoriya i praktika obshchestvennogo razvitiya = Theory and Practice of Social Development, 2014, no. 9, pp. 111–115. URL: Link (In Russ.)
