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Econometric modeling of some economic metrics of human capital development in Russia in the current economic situation

Vol. 15, Iss. 10, OCTOBER 2019

Received: 13 August 2019

Received in revised form: 30 August 2019

Accepted: 16 September 2019

Available online: 15 October 2019

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC POLICY OF THE STATE

JEL Classification: O15, O3, C33, С51, С53

Pages: 1802–1818

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.15.10.1802

Baranova N.M. Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Moscow, Russian Federation
baranova_nm@pfur.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7201-9435

Subject The article discusses the topical issue of training highly professional talent who would be able to withstand external challenges and raise the national competitiveness.
Objectives The study models the development level of human resources in Russia by key parameters, determines their role in the national socio-economic development and its competitiveness.
Methods Calculations are based on data of Human Development Report, World Bank, World Economic Forum in Davos, etc. Using Eviews 10 package, I conducted the regression analysis and econometric research, built human capital development forecast models.
Results Education, innovative capacity, technological development, human capital were found to contribute to higher national competitiveness. The human capital development models allow to make the nearest-future forecasts. Assessment of Human Development Index shows that Russia’s human capital may reach a new level, with the national economy attaining Top-10 economic leaders.
Conclusions and Relevance Currently, it is yet unknown which resources will be used for Russia to attain Industry 4.0. As for key innovation indicators, Russia still lags behind global economic leaders and some emerging economies. Russia’s development strategies up to 2030 for human resource improvement pursue the better standard of living, competitiveness and smoother integration of Russia into the global innovative chain of labor segregation.

Keywords: human capital, competitiveness, econometric modeling, socio-economic development

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