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The system model of the economic structure of the society to forecast the innovative development

Vol. 15, Iss. 12, DECEMBER 2019

Received: 4 September 2019

Received in revised form: 21 September 2019

Accepted: 15 October 2019

Available online: 13 December 2019

Subject Heading: INNOVATION AND INVESTMENT

JEL Classification: B50, E03

Pages: 2344–2360

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.15.12.2344

Yakushev A.Zh. Plekhanov Russian Economic University (PRUE), Moscow, Russian Federation
Yakushev.AZH@rea.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0371-0289

Subject The article focuses on the development of socio-economic systems at various levels, which takes place during long and medium economic and technological waves. To strategically manage the development of socio-economic systems and innovation, their state should be systemically modeled throughout phases of the economic and technological cycles, which is the means of forecasting and optimizing decisions. Based on such strategic modeling, such measures will cushion, if not prevent, social development crises.
Objectives The study aims to build a model describing the inner state of the socio-economic development throughout phases of economic and technological cycles to strategically manage the development. The model should not depend on a phase of economic and technological cycles and the very cycle, as well as the socio-economic order.
Methods The research involves general scientific and special methods, such as retrospective, systems and functional-structural analysis, observation, classification, evolutionary and dynamic analysis.
Results I propose a model describing the socio-economic system as a set of eight economic cycles, which synergetically interact and constitute sub-systems creating value added in a different manner. Economic cycles are not homogeneous, with one of them always dominating. Evolving, they can spur and inhibit their development. Social development crises can be interpreted as a conflict of people who strive to promote some economic cycle, which could not be timely resolved by the social management system.
Conclusions and Relevance Considering that Russia needs a robust innovative sector, it is necessary to promptly and appropriately configure economic cycles ensuring the priority development of innovative activities to produce and commercialize the intellectual capital in Russia.

Keywords: socio-economic system, economic cycle, technological cycle, economic order, innovation

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