Regional Economics: Theory and Practice

The risks of the economic innovation and investment sector of the Novgorod oblast and their impact on the gross regional product

Vol. 16, Iss. 1, JANUARY 2018

Received: 5 September 2017

Received in revised form: 16 October 2017

Accepted: 30 October 2017

Available online: 16 January 2018


JEL Classification: C14, C15, O11, R13, R58

Pages: 138–152

Bernasovskaya L.I. Saint-Petersburg State Economic University (SPbSEU), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Kormanovskaya I.R. Saint-Petersburg State Economic University (SPbSEU), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Subject The article focuses on the issue of establishing a risk assessment and prediction system based on a rank factor model that minimizes uncertainty in the onset of unfavorable events in the medium-and long-term planning of the region's economic development.
Objectives The article aims to develop tools for assessing and predicting the sustainable development of regions in terms of their sectoral structure by identifying the sources of regional risks, their aggregating assessment, and the priorities for innovative development.
Methods For the study, we used the methods and techniques of scientific abstraction, observation, expert evaluation, economic and statistical analysis, structural and logical analysis, and a systems approach.
Results The article presents a methodology for assessing the development of a regional economy, which is characterized by the synthesis of dynamic regulations and the use of non-parametric rank methods. This methodology enables the analysis of specific quantitative characteristics of the development, which allows the overall movement path to be controlled by growth rate of each particular indicator included in the dynamic regulation.
Conclusions To achieve innovative development, it is necessary to measure the degree of economic dynamism of the regional system by improving its structure. From the management paradigm perspective, risk ranking is required in terms of the impact on the region's socioeconomic development.

Keywords: innovation and investment sector, growth rate, economy, summarizing risks


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